據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2023年8月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管今年上半年全球?qū)ΤＲ?guī)油氣勘探的投資不斷增加，但所發(fā)現(xiàn)的油氣儲(chǔ)量卻降至新低。

挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司睿咨得能源公司（Rystad）在發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新報(bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)了這一點(diǎn)，并補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，其估計(jì)顯示，今年上半年，全球勘探公司發(fā)現(xiàn)了26億桶油當(dāng)量的油氣儲(chǔ)量，Rystad表示，這比去年上半年發(fā)現(xiàn)的45億桶油當(dāng)量油氣儲(chǔ)量減少42%。

Rystad在新聞稿中透露，今年1月至6月全球獲得55個(gè)新發(fā)現(xiàn)，“而去年上半年的新發(fā)現(xiàn)為80個(gè)”。 Rystad在新聞稿中指出，這意味著今年每個(gè)新發(fā)現(xiàn)的平均發(fā)現(xiàn)量為4700萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量，低于去年同期的5600萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。

在新聞稿中，Rystad表示，“在尋找新資源的過(guò)程中”，勘探公司正在優(yōu)先考慮海上領(lǐng)域。 Rystad在新聞稿中強(qiáng)調(diào)，今年迄今為止，海上行業(yè)占勘探總支出的95%左右，但僅占已發(fā)現(xiàn)儲(chǔ)量的三分之二左右。

Rystad透露，今年全球常規(guī)勘探支出預(yù)計(jì)將超過(guò)500億美元。這一數(shù)字在去年低于500億美元，在2021年略高于400億美元。

Rystad上游研究副總裁Aatisha Mahajan在一份公司聲明中表示：“上游公司正面臨一段不確定時(shí)期。”

Mahajan補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“上游公司渴望利用對(duì)化石燃料日益增長(zhǎng)的需求，尋找更多的資源，但最近的結(jié)果并不樂(lè)觀。”

“如果勘探工作在今年剩下的時(shí)間里繼續(xù)取得令人印象深刻的結(jié)果，那么今年可能會(huì)因?yàn)殄e(cuò)誤的原因而突破歷史新高。”Mahajan繼續(xù)說(shuō)道。

儲(chǔ)量大國(guó)、海上發(fā)現(xiàn)排名與高影響力井

Rystad在新聞稿中表示，到目前為止，圭亞那在今年已發(fā)現(xiàn)的油氣儲(chǔ)量方面處于領(lǐng)先地位，為6.03億桶油當(dāng)量。根據(jù)Rystad的數(shù)據(jù)，土耳其以3.8億桶油當(dāng)量排名第二，尼日利亞以2.96億桶油當(dāng)量排名第三，納米比亞以2.87億桶油當(dāng)量排名第四，并強(qiáng)調(diào)“隨著我們更好地了解儲(chǔ)量”，這些估計(jì)數(shù)有可能增加。

Rystad在新聞稿中指出，海上發(fā)現(xiàn)相對(duì)均勻地分布在超深水、深水和大陸架上。Rystad補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，預(yù)計(jì)今年剩余時(shí)間的勘探活動(dòng)將增加，特別是在超深水市場(chǎng)，“預(yù)計(jì)與去年相比將增長(zhǎng)27%”。

Rystad在新聞稿中列出了今年1月至6月海上鉆井活動(dòng)排名前15位的盆地。根據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，美國(guó)墨西哥灣深水區(qū)排名第一，挪威/英國(guó)的維京地塹排名第二，墨西哥的蘇雷特盆地排名第三。

Rystad在新聞稿中表示，其研究表明，今年全球預(yù)計(jì)將鉆31口高影響力井。到目前為止，已經(jīng)完鉆了13口高影響力井，6口高影響力井正在鉆進(jìn)中，12口高影響力井仍在籌劃中，Rystad補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，“在13口已完鉆的高影響力井中，只有4口高影響力井鉆遇到了碳?xì)浠衔铮晒β蕛H為31%”。

石油巨頭的勘探支出

Rystad在發(fā)布會(huì)上表示，埃克森美孚公司、英國(guó)石油公司、殼牌公司、道達(dá)爾能源公司、埃尼公司和雪佛龍公司預(yù)計(jì)今年將在勘探上花費(fèi)約70億美元，并補(bǔ)充說(shuō)這比去年高出約10%。

Rystad在發(fā)布會(huì)上指出，預(yù)測(cè)顯示，未來(lái)幾個(gè)月大型石油公司的勘探支出將占全球勘探總支出的14%左右。然而，Rystad在新聞稿中透露，今年預(yù)計(jì)全球勘探支出的一半以上將來(lái)自國(guó)家石油公司和擁有國(guó)際投資組合的國(guó)家石油公司。

今年5月，Rystad在其網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布的一份聲明中指出，對(duì)全球能源可靠性的擔(dān)憂正在引發(fā)石油和天然氣投資的激增，但警告說(shuō)，這種增長(zhǎng)只是暫時(shí)的。

Rystad在聲明中表示：“爆發(fā)地緣政治沖突后，去年和今年全球?qū)剂系念A(yù)期投資激增了1400億美元。”

Rystad補(bǔ)充說(shuō)：“去年之前兩年的總開(kāi)支預(yù)計(jì)為9450億美元，但由于戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)導(dǎo)致物資短缺和價(jià)格飆升，預(yù)計(jì)開(kāi)支已躍升至近1.1萬(wàn)億美元。”

“在1400億美元的增長(zhǎng)中，頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)以800億美元的額外開(kāi)支增長(zhǎng)吸引了大部分關(guān)注，增加了30%，油田服務(wù)的開(kāi)支上漲了近50%。海上生產(chǎn)開(kāi)支增長(zhǎng)了400億美元，而其他陸上活動(dòng)開(kāi)支增加了200億美元。”

2022年是表現(xiàn)突出的一年

今年1月，伍德麥肯茲在其網(wǎng)站上發(fā)布的一份聲明中表示，全球油氣勘探行業(yè)在2022年是其十多年來(lái)最強(qiáng)勁的一年。

伍德麥肯茲在聲明中表示：“伍德麥肯茲的《油氣勘探：2022年回顧》報(bào)告指出，2022年勘探井?dāng)?shù)量不到疫情前幾年的一半，但200億桶油當(dāng)量的總產(chǎn)量與2013—2019年的平均年產(chǎn)量相當(dāng)。”

伍德麥肯茲全球勘探研究總監(jiān)朱莉·威爾遜在聲明中指出：“2022年是勘探領(lǐng)域表現(xiàn)突出的一年。”

“銷量不錯(cuò)，但不是特別好。然而，勘探者能夠通過(guò)戰(zhàn)略選擇和專注于最佳和最大的遠(yuǎn)景構(gòu)造來(lái)獲得極高價(jià)值。”

威爾遜繼續(xù)說(shuō)道：“這些發(fā)現(xiàn)為企業(yè)的投資組合帶來(lái)了更高質(zhì)量的碳?xì)浠衔铮顾麄兡軌蛲ㄟ^(guò)取代不太有利的石油和天然氣供應(yīng)來(lái)減少碳排放，同時(shí)也滿足了世界的能源需求。”

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Conventional Discovered Oil and Gas Volumes Falling to New Lows|

Despite rising investments in conventional oil and gas exploration, discovered volumes are falling to new lows.

That’s what Rystad Energy research shows, the company highlighted in a new release sent to Rigzone, adding that its estimates show that in the first half of 2023, explorers found 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), which the company said was 42 percent lower than the first half of 2022 total of 4.5 billion boe.

Rystad revealed in the release that 55 discoveries have been made from January to June this year, “compared to 80 in the first six months of last year”. The company noted in the release that this means discoveries in 2023 have averaged 47 million boe, which it said is lower than the 56 million boe per discovery for the same period in 2022.

In the release, Rystad stated that, “in the hunt for new resources”, exploration companies are prioritizing the offshore sector. The offshore industry accounted for about 95 percent of exploration spending this year to date, but only about two-thirds of discovered volumes, the company highlighted in the release.

In a chart included in the publication, Rystad revealed that annual global conventional exploration spending is expected to top $50 billion in 2023. This figure came in below $50 billion in 2022 and just above $40 billion in 2021, according to the chart.

“Upstream companies are facing a period of uncertainty,” Aatisha Mahajan, the Vice President of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement.

“They are eager to capitalize on the increased demand for fossil fuels and find additional resources, but recent results have been lackluster,” Mahajan added.

“If exploration efforts continue to yield unimpressive results for the remainder of the year, 2023 could be a record-breaker for the wrong reasons,” the VP continued.

Top Countries, Offshore Discovery Type, HI Wells

Guyana leads the way in discovered volumes so far in 2023, with 603 million boe, Rystad outlined in the release. Turkey ranks second with 380 million boe, Nigeria lies third with 296 million boe, and Namibia places fourth with 287 million boe, according to Rystad, which highlighted that there is potential for these estimates to grow “as we better understand the reserves”.

Offshore discoveries are spread relatively evenly between ultra-deepwater, deepwater, and shelf finds, Rystad noted in the release. The company added that it expects increased activity in the remainder of 2023, especially in the ultra-deepwater market, “with projected growth of 27 percent versus 2022 in terms of spud wells”.

In another chart included in the release, Rystad ranked the top 15 basins by offshore well spud activity from January to June this year. The U.S. Gulf deepwater was top, the Viking Graben in Norway/UK was second, and Mexico’s Sureste was third, according to the chart.

Rystad said in the release its research shows that 31 high-impact wells are expected to be drilled this year. So far, 13 have been completed, six are ongoing, and 12 remain in the pipeline, the company highlighted, adding that “only four of the 13 completed wells encountered hydrocarbons, a measly 31 percent success rate”.

Spending

ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Chevron are expected to spend about $7 billion this year on exploration, Rystad outlined in the release, adding that this is about 10 percent higher than last year.

Rystad noted in the release that its forecasts show that the majors will contribute about 14 percent of total global exploration spending in the coming months. More than half of the projected exploration spending in 2023 will come from national oil companies and national oil companies with international portfolios, however, the company revealed in the release.

In a statement posted on its site back in May, Rystad noted that global energy reliability concerns are triggering a surge in oil and gas investments but warned that this uptick is only temporary.

“After the conflicts, expected investments in fossil fuels in 2022 and 2023 surged by $140 billion, Rystad Energy research shows,” Rystad said in the statement.

“Before the conflicts, the two-year total was projected at $945 billion, but as the war sparked shortages and sky-high prices, expected spending has jumped to almost $1.1 trillion,” the company added.

“Of the $140 billion growth, shale production attracted most of the limelight with an additional $80 billion increase, as activity climbed 30 percent and pricing for oilfield services jumped nearly 50 percent. Offshore production accounted for $40 billion in growth, while other onshore activities expanded by an additional $20 billion,” Rystad continued.

2022 A Standout Year

The global oil and gas exploration sector had its strongest year in 2022 in more than a decade, Wood Mackenzie said in a statement posted on its site back in January this year.

“Wood Mackenzie’s ‘Oil and gas exploration: 2022 in review’ report states that exploration well numbers were less than half the numbers during pre-pandemic years, yet the total volume of 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent matched the average annual volumes of 2013-2019,” the company said in the statement.

“2022 was a standout year for exploration,” Julie Wilson, the Director of global exploration research at Wood Mackenzie, noted in the statement.

“Volumes were good, but not stellar. However, explorers were able to drive very high value through strategic selection and focusing on the best and largest prospects,” Wilson added.

“The discoveries bring higher-quality hydrocarbons into companies’ portfolios, allowing them to reduce carbon by displacing less advantaged oil and gas supplies while also meeting the world’s energy needs,” Wilson went on to state.