國際能源署(IEA)：今年全球可再生能源新增裝機(jī)容量預(yù)計將飆升至440吉瓦

由于歐盟對能源危機(jī)的反應(yīng)，所有主要可再生能源市場都將出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年6月3日報道，國際能源署(IEA)在本周的一份新報告中稱，歐洲的能源危機(jī)、美國的《通脹削減法案》(IRA)以及亞洲綠色能源設(shè)施的持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張，預(yù)計都將推動今年全球可再生能源產(chǎn)能增長達(dá)到有史以來的最高水平。

IEA在其報告中稱，今年全球可再生能源新增裝機(jī)容量預(yù)計將飆升至440吉瓦，同比將增加107吉瓦，是有史以來最大的可再生能源新增裝機(jī)容量增幅。今年新增的太陽能光伏發(fā)電(PV)將占可再生能源新增裝機(jī)容量的三分之二。

IEA指出，由于歐盟對能源危機(jī)的反應(yīng)、美國和印度的新激勵措施以及亞洲可再生能源的持續(xù)增長，所有主要市場都將出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長。

IEA署長法提赫·比羅爾表示：“今年，全球電力系統(tǒng)將新增巨大數(shù)量的可再生電力——超過德國和西班牙的總發(fā)電量?！?/p>

比羅爾指出，今年新增裝機(jī)容量是2019年疫情前新增可再生能源裝機(jī)容量的兩倍多。

“能源危機(jī)刺激了對大型發(fā)電廠和屋頂太陽能的需求。”他補(bǔ)充道。

IEA上周表示，今年全球?qū)μ柲馨l(fā)電的投資將有史以來首次超過對石油生產(chǎn)的投資。

IEA預(yù)計今年全球能源總投資將達(dá)到2.8萬億美元，其中1.74萬億美元將用于清潔能源和技術(shù)，其余1.05萬億美元將用于化石燃料。

比羅爾說：“在化石燃料上每投資1美元，就有1.7美元投向清潔能源，5年前，這個比例是1比1。 ”

IEA在本周的《市場更新》報告中表示，到2024年底，太陽能和風(fēng)能裝機(jī)容量的飆升將使全球可再生能源裝機(jī)容量累計超過4500吉瓦，相當(dāng)于兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的總發(fā)電量。

在美國，由于限制性貿(mào)易措施和供應(yīng)鏈限制，去年美國風(fēng)能和太陽能市場出現(xiàn)萎縮，今年這兩種技術(shù)的年增量預(yù)計將增長約40%，太陽能光伏裝置將達(dá)到歷史最高水平。

IEA表示，《通脹削減法案》對美國可再生能源技術(shù)部署的影響將在2025年變得明顯。IEA補(bǔ)充說：“目前的預(yù)測是基于現(xiàn)有的稅收激勵措施，而《通脹削減法案》將在2024年之后充分發(fā)揮作用，為2032年前的可再生能源項目提供前所未有的確定性。”

然而，IEA警告說，如果要實(shí)現(xiàn)目前對中長期和凈零情景的預(yù)測，可再生能源的快速擴(kuò)張帶來了一系列挑戰(zhàn)，需要克服這些挑戰(zhàn)。

IEA表示，風(fēng)能和太陽能光伏發(fā)電的擴(kuò)張需要伴隨著支持電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、靈活性投資和許可政策和市場規(guī)則。

報告稱：“電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資不足仍然是全球面臨的一個挑戰(zhàn)，不僅是對風(fēng)能和太陽能光伏發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量更快增長的挑戰(zhàn)，也是對現(xiàn)有發(fā)電廠發(fā)電潛力最大化的挑戰(zhàn)。”

由于可變的可再生能源(VRE)份額的增加，在許多市場中，風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電的份額正在上升。IEA表示，在主要電網(wǎng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和/或先進(jìn)的市場設(shè)計和監(jiān)管未能跟上可再生能源部署步伐的地區(qū)，可再生能源棄電的增加尤其明顯。

可再生能源的成本正在下降，但還沒有達(dá)到能源危機(jī)、供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸和利率上升之前的水平。

盡管大宗商品價格不斷下跌，但到2024年，新的公用事業(yè)規(guī)模的陸上風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電成本仍將比2020年的水平高出10%～15%。 隨著利率的上升，開發(fā)商的融資成本也在增加。

IEA表示，今明兩年，陸上風(fēng)能和太陽能光伏的全球平均能源成本(ICOE)將有所下降，但仍將高于2020年。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

IEA: Renewables Installations In 2023 Soar To Levels We’ve Never Seen

·     IEA: new installations of renewable energy capacity are expected to surge to 440 gigawatts this year.

·     All major markets are set to see strong expansion due to the EU response to the energy crisis.

The energy crisis in Europe, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States, and the continued strong expansion of green energy installations in China are all expected to contribute to the biggest-ever increase in renewable energy capacity additions this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report this week.  

Globally, new installations of renewable energy capacity are expected to surge to 440 gigawatts (GW) this year, up by 107 GW year-on-year and the largest increase in new capacity ever seen, the IEA said in its report. Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are set to account for two-thirds of the increase in renewable power capacity this year.  

All major markets are set to see strong expansion due to the EU response to the energy crisis, the new incentives in the U.S. and India, and the continued surge, the agency noted. 

“This year, the world is set to add a record-breaking amount of renewables to electricity systems – more than the total power capacity of Germany and Spain combined,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. 

The jump in installations this year is more than double the amount of renewable energy capacity added in the pre-Covid year 2019, Birol noted. 

“The energy crisis has turbocharged demand for both large-scale plants & rooftop solar,” the IEA’s top executive added. 

Investment in solar power generation is set to eclipse investment in oil production in 2023 for the first time ever, the IEA said last week. 

For 2023, the IEA expects total investments in energy at $2.8 trillion, of which $1.74 trillion will go to clean energy and technologies and the remaining $1.05 trillion to fossil fuels. 

“For every dollar invested in fossil fuels, about 1.7 dollars are now going into clean energy. Five years ago, this ratio was one-to-one,” Birol said. 

Soaring installations of solar and wind power capacity will result in a cumulative world renewable capacity of over 4,500 GW at the end of 2024, equal to the total power capacity of the second economics and the United States combined, the IEA said in this week’s report Renewable Energy Market Update. 

In the United States, where the wind and solar markets contracted last year due to restrictive trade measures and supply chain constraints, annual additions for both technologies are expected to increase by around 40% in 2023, and solar PV installations will set a new record. 

The Inflation Reduction Act’s impact on renewable energy technology deployment in the U.S. will become evident in 2025, the IEA said. 

“The current forecast is underpinned by existing tax incentives, while the Inflation Reduction Act will show its full effect after 2024, providing unprecedented certainty for renewable energy projects until 2032,” the agency added. 

However, the IEA warned that the rapid expansion of renewables comes with a set of challenges that need to be overcome if current projections for the medium and long term and for a net-zero scenario are to be met. 

The expansion of wind and solar PV needs to be accompanied by policies and market rules supporting grid infrastructure, flexibility investments, and permitting, according to the agency. 

“Inadequate investment in grid infrastructure remains a challenge worldwide not only for faster growth in new wind and solar PV capacity, but also for maximising generation potential from existing power plants,” it said. 

The share of curtailed wind and solar generation is rising in many markets as the share of variable renewable energy (VRE) increases. The increased renewable generation curtailment is particularly evident in areas where major grid infrastructure investments and/or advanced market design and regulation fail to keep pace with renewables deployment, the agency said. 

Costs for renewables are on track to drop, but not as much as to reach the levels from before the energy crisis, supply-chain bottlenecks, and higher interest rates.  

Electricity generation costs from new utility-scale onshore wind and solar are set to remain 10-15% above 2020 levels in 2024, despite the falling commodity prices. The financing costs for developers have increased along with the rise in interest rates. 

The global average levelized costs of energy (LCOEs) for onshore wind and solar PV are set for some declines this year and next, but they will remain higher than in 2020, the IEA said.