據(jù)彭博新聞社2023年3月20日?qǐng)?bào)道，受對(duì)沖基金青睞的交易價(jià)差大幅下跌，同時(shí)銀行業(yè)動(dòng)蕩動(dòng)搖了整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的信心，時(shí)下油價(jià)徘徊在15個(gè)月低點(diǎn)附近。

周一布倫特原油12月對(duì)12月價(jià)差收窄至2021年12月以來(lái)的最低水平，表明近期對(duì)石油需求前景減弱的擔(dān)憂(yōu)產(chǎn)生了較長(zhǎng)期影響。就連最熱衷看漲原油價(jià)格的高盛集團(tuán)(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)也不再預(yù)測(cè)今年原油價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶100美元。

高盛集團(tuán)還下調(diào)了對(duì)未來(lái)12個(gè)月布倫特原油價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)，原因是對(duì)近期經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂(yōu)加劇，以及投資者資金外流大幅壓低了原油價(jià)格。

帝國(guó)商業(yè)銀行私人財(cái)富管理高級(jí)能源交易員麗貝卡·巴賓表示：“過(guò)去一周，投資者心理受到了傷害，只有市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)企穩(wěn)，投資者才會(huì)重拾信心。”“由于我們本周進(jìn)入美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)更多波動(dòng)和低信心交易。”

自去年底以來(lái)，油價(jià)一直在狹窄的通道中徘徊。上周，由于銀行業(yè)危機(jī)放大了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂(yōu)，以及產(chǎn)能大國(guó)原油供應(yīng)的韌性，油價(jià)終于跌破低位。油價(jià)暴跌增加了歐佩克+干預(yù)市場(chǎng)的可能性，盡管有人猜測(cè)該石油出口國(guó)組織目前將保持觀望。

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Oil Near 2021 Lows as Banking Crisis Boosts Recession Fears

Oil hovered around 15-month lows as a favored spread for hedge funds to trade plunged with banking turmoil shaking confidence across markets.

Brent’s December-December spread narrowed on Monday to its weakest level since Dec. 2021, suggesting a longer-term impact from recent fears of a diminished demand outlook. Even crude’s most ardent bull, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., no longer forecasts the commodity to reach $100 a barrel this year. 

The bank lowered its Brent projection for the 12 months ahead as rising near-term recession concerns and an exodus of investor flows sharply lowered crude prices. 

“Investor psyche has been damaged over the past week and it is going to take the emergence of a market stability to draw investors back to the fold,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “Expect more volatility and low- conviction trading as we head into the Fed this week”

After being stuck in a narrow channel since the end of last year, oil prices broke lower last week as the banking crisis magnified global recession fears and the resilience in the largger producer crude flows. The price slump has raised the prospect of intervention from OPEC+, though there’s speculation the group will stay on the sidelines for now.