據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶3月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）最新的《短期能源展望》（STEO），預(yù)計(jì)2023年和2024年全球液體燃料產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)需求。

在本周發(fā)布的STEO中，EIA預(yù)測(cè)今年全球總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1.0147億桶/天，明年將達(dá)到1.032億桶/天。STEO預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球總消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到1.009億桶/天，2024年將達(dá)到1.0269億桶/天。

按季度劃分，最新的STEO預(yù)計(jì)今年第一季度全球總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1.0073億桶/天，第二季度為1.0128億桶/天，第三季度為1.0192億桶/天，第四季度為1.0193億桶/天，2024年第一季度為1.0227億桶/天，第二季度為1.0285億桶/天，第三季度為1.0343億桶/天，第四季度為1.0353億桶/天。

最新的STEO預(yù)計(jì)，2023年第一季度全球總消費(fèi)量將為9994萬(wàn)桶/天，第二季度為1.006億桶/天，第三季度為1.0147億桶/天、第四季度為1.0156億桶/天、明年第一季度為1.0204億桶/每天，第二季度為1.0231億桶/天，第三季度為1.0325億桶/天，第四季度為1.0314億桶/天。

EIA在3月份的STEO中概述稱(chēng)，2022年全球石油總產(chǎn)量和消費(fèi)量分別為9986萬(wàn)桶/天和9942萬(wàn)桶/天。將全球總產(chǎn)量穩(wěn)固在9995萬(wàn)桶/天，全球總消費(fèi)量為9936萬(wàn)桶/天的2月份STEO中，EIA預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1.011億桶/天，2024年將達(dá)到1.0261億桶/天。預(yù)計(jì)2023年世界總消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到1.0047億桶/天，2024年將達(dá)到1.0226億桶/天。

EIA在其最新的STEO中表示，“在全球范圍內(nèi)，我們預(yù)測(cè)的液體燃料消費(fèi)量從2022年的日均9940萬(wàn)桶增加到2023年的1.009億桶，比上個(gè)月的預(yù)期高出40萬(wàn)桶”。

EIA補(bǔ)充道，較高的消費(fèi)預(yù)測(cè)主要受全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)上調(diào)的影響。預(yù)計(jì)印度的消費(fèi)量將增加20萬(wàn)桶/天，其他非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的消費(fèi)量將日均增加50萬(wàn)桶。

EIA繼續(xù)說(shuō)道，非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的這一增長(zhǎng)抵消了2023年經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家?guī)缀鯖](méi)有消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)。由于通貨膨脹的影響繼續(xù)限制國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和石油需求增長(zhǎng)，經(jīng)合組織的消費(fèi)量基本保持不變。我們預(yù)測(cè)，2024年全球液體燃料消耗量將增加180萬(wàn)桶/天，非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家將占160萬(wàn)桶的增長(zhǎng)。

EIA在最新的STEO中表示，2022年全球液體燃料日均產(chǎn)量約為1億桶，預(yù)測(cè)2023年和2024年日均產(chǎn)量將增加160萬(wàn)桶。盡管上調(diào)了對(duì)全球液體燃料消費(fèi)的預(yù)測(cè)，但仍預(yù)計(jì)，隨著全球石油產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)超過(guò)消費(fèi)，全球石油庫(kù)存將在預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)持續(xù)增加。

國(guó)際能源署（IEA）在2月發(fā)布的最新石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中表示，2023年全球石油需求將增加200萬(wàn)桶/天，達(dá)到1.019億桶/天。IEA在報(bào)告中指出，亞太地區(qū)將主導(dǎo)著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景。

在石油供應(yīng)方面，IEA在報(bào)告中表示，受非OPEC+的推動(dòng)，預(yù)計(jì)2023年全球日產(chǎn)量將增長(zhǎng)120萬(wàn)桶。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下：

Global Liquid Fuel Production to Outpace Demand

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global liquid fuel production to outpace demand in 2023 and 2024, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).

In the STEO, which was released this week, the EIA projects that total world production will hit 101.47 million barrels per day this year and 103.02 million barrels per day next year. The STEO expects total world consumption to come in at 100.90 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.69 million barrels per day in 2024.

Broken down quarterly, the latest STEO expects total world production to hit 100.73 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 101.28 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.92 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 101.93 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 102.27 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.85 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.43 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.53 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The latest STEO anticipates that total world consumption will be 99.94 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 100.60 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.47 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 101.56 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, 102.04 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 102.31 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 103.25 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 103.14 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s March STEO outlined that 2022 total world production and total world consumption was 99.86 million barrels per day and 99.42 million barrels per day, respectively. In its February STEO, which pegged total world production at 99.95 million barrels per day and total world consumption at 99.36 million barrels per day, the EIA projected that total world production would hit 101.10 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.61 million barrels per day in 2024. Total world consumption was projected to hit 100.47 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.26 million barrels per day in 2024 in that STEO.

“Globally, liquid fuels consumption in our forecast increases from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 100.9 million barrels per day in 2023, which is 0.4 million barrels per day higher than in last month’s outlook,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“The higher consumption forecast is primarily driven by upward revisions to global economic growth. We forecast consumption in India to increase by 0.2 million barrels per day and other non-OECD consumption to grow by 0.5 million barrels per day on average,” the EIA added.

“This growth in non-OECD countries counteracts almost no consumption growth among OECD countries in 2023. OECD consumption remains largely unchanged as the effects of inflation continue to limit GDP and oil demand growth. We forecast global liquids fuel consumption will grow by an additional 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, and non-OECD countries will account for 1.6 million barrels per day of the growth,” the EIA continued.

In the latest STEO, the EIA said “world liquid fuels production averaged about 100 million barrels per day in 2022, and we forecast it will rise by an average of 1.6 million barrels per day in both 2023 and 2024”.

“Despite upward revisions to increasing our forecast of global liquid fuels consumption, we still expect consistent global oil inventory builds over the forecast period as global oil production continues to outpace consumption,” the EIA stated in the STEO.

In its latest oil market report, which was released in February, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global oil demand is set to rise by two million barrels per day in 2023 to 101.9 million barrels per day. The IEA noted in the report that the Asia-Pacific region dominates the growth outlook.

Looking at oil supply, the IEA stated in the report it expects global output to grow 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023, “driven by non-OPEC+”.