據油價網12月7日消息稱，美國新墨西哥州本月的原油產量將超過墨西哥。這是渣打銀行大宗商品分析師在油價網獲得的一份新報告中預測的結果，新墨西哥州9月份的石油日產量僅比墨西哥少7.4萬桶。

新墨西哥州的產量激增主要集中在Lea和Eddy兩個區域，這兩個地區目前雇用了美國16%的活躍石油鉆井平臺。“新墨西哥州石油產量的上升是我們不擔心美國已過峰值的原因之一；我們預計原油產量將在2023年6月達到歷史新高。”渣打銀行在報告中表示。

專家預測，美國原油產量將在2023年6月達到歷史最高水平，并指出，美國石油液體總產量（包括生物燃料和天然氣液體）在疫情期間暴跌后已經完全恢復。

美國9月份的油液總產量達到1950.2萬桶/天，比此前的歷史最高水平(2020年1月)高出26.5萬桶/天。強勁的基數效應(由于2021年9月的颶風活動)加速了9月份原油同比增長至135萬桶/天，總油液同比增長至191.9萬桶/天。渣打銀行表示，年度增長數字將更加溫和，并預測2022年美國原油供應的年率增長將達到66.3萬桶/天，總液態油供應的年率增長將達到119.1萬桶/天。

美國能源情報署(EIA)最近發生了大轉變，將明年的石油產量預測上調至1234萬桶/天，打破2019年創下的1231萬桶/天的紀錄。上個月，EIA在其短期能源展望(STEO)中，將2023年的產量展望下調了2.1萬桶/天，至1231萬桶/天，將2023年的產量增長下調了12.1萬桶/天，至48.7萬桶/天。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價網

原文如下：

New Mexico Will Overtake Mexico’s Crude Oil Output This Month

New Mexico is set to overtake Mexico’s crude oil production in the current month. That’s what commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have projected in a new report obtained by Oilprice.com, with New Mexico’s production in September just 74,000 barrels per day less than Mexico’s.

“The surge in New Mexico’s output is centered on two counties, Lea and Eddy, where 16 percent of active U.S. oil rigs are currently employed. Rising New Mexico output is one reason why we do not share concerns that the U.S. is past its peak; we expect crude oil output to reach a new all-time high in June 2023,” StanChart says in the report.

The experts have forecast that U.S. crude oil output will hit an all-time high in June 2023, noting that total U.S. oil liquids output (including biofuels and natural gas liquids, NGLs) has already fully recovered after crashing during the pandemic.

Total US oil liquids output in September clocked in at 19.502mb/d, surpassing the previous all-time high (January 2020) by 265kb/d. A strong base effect (due to hurricane activity in September 2021) accelerated September y/y growth to 1.35mb/d for crude oil and 1.919mb/d for total oil liquids. StanChart says the annual growth numbers will be more modest, and has forecast y/y growth in U.S. supply in 2022 to come in at 663kb/d for crude oil and 1.191mb/d for total oil liquids.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently did an about-face, raising its forecast for oil production next year to reach 12.34M bbl/day next year, breaking the record 12.31M bbl/day set in 2019. Last month, in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA revised its 2023 production outlook lower by 21kb/d to 12.31mb/d and 2023 growth lower by 121kb/d to 487kb/d.