據(jù)美國(guó)彭博新聞社2022年8月10日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管在美國(guó)頁巖領(lǐng)域成本飆升和勞動(dòng)力短缺導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)速度低于預(yù)期，但美國(guó)明年的石油產(chǎn)量仍有望達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平。  

美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，明年美國(guó)石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將以平均每天84萬桶的速度增長(zhǎng)，低于此前預(yù)測(cè)的每天86萬桶。盡管美國(guó)明年石油日產(chǎn)量仍將達(dá)到歷史最高水平，但美國(guó)政府仍將其預(yù)測(cè)略降至1270萬桶。目前的紀(jì)錄是2019年創(chuàng)下的1230萬桶。 

美國(guó)以前是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的搖擺油氣生產(chǎn)國(guó)，通常能夠在全球需求變化時(shí)迅速增加供應(yīng)。然而，近幾年來，面對(duì)不斷增長(zhǎng)的股東回報(bào)和不斷飆升的油田成本，美國(guó)頁巖鉆井公司的增長(zhǎng)有限。  

EIA還下調(diào)了今年美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)，估計(jì)美國(guó)今年的平均日產(chǎn)量將為1186萬桶。這是該機(jī)構(gòu)1月份報(bào)告以來的最低預(yù)測(cè)。 

與此同時(shí)，EIA預(yù)計(jì)今明兩年全球石油日消費(fèi)量將增加210萬桶，但警告說，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會(huì)帶來需求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。EIA 8月10日表示：“在我們的預(yù)測(cè)中，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)不那么強(qiáng)勁，可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致能源消耗低于預(yù)期。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)彭博新聞社

原文如下：

U.S. oil output set for record 2023 despite slowing growth

U.S. oil production remains on track for a record 2023 even as output grows more slowly than anticipated amid surging costs and labor shortages in America’s shale fields.

Output is expected to expand at an average rate of 840,000 barrels a day next year, down from a prior forecast of 860,000, according to the Energy Information Administration. While production is still seen reaching an all-time high in 2023, the government revised its forecast slightly lower to 12.7 million barrels a day. The current annual record is 12.3 million set in 2019. 

The US was previously a key swing producer, usually capable of ramping up supply quickly as global demand shifts. In recent years, however, shale drillers have limited growth in favor of increasing shareholder returns and in the face of soaring oilfield costs. 

The EIA also lowered this year’s production forecast, estimating US output will average 11.86 million barrels a day in 2022. That’s the lowest forecast since the agency’s January report.

Meanwhile, the agency sees global petroleum consumption growing by 2.1 million barrels day this year and next, but cautioned that a recession poses demand risks. “Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption,” the agency said Wednesday.