據(jù)Rigzone 5月5日報(bào)道，由于石油和天然氣價(jià)格高企和需求激增，勘探和生產(chǎn)上市公司今年有望打破以往的利潤紀(jì)錄。

Rystad Energy的研究顯示，總自由現(xiàn)金流，即公司在扣除資金流出和資產(chǎn)維護(hù)后的運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金流，將激增至8340億美元，比2021年的4930億美元利潤增長近70%。

2020年，由于疫情和隨后的油價(jià)暴跌，來自公共勘探和生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的總自由現(xiàn)金流下降到大約1260億美元，比前一年減少了一半。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)反彈，燃料需求增加，去年的總自由現(xiàn)金流飆升至近5000億美元，創(chuàng)下上游行業(yè)有史以來的最高利潤。

Rystad能源公司上游研究主管Espen Erlingsen說：“目前，公共上游運(yùn)營商的財(cái)務(wù)狀況處于歷史最高水平。盡管如此，由于一系列完美的因素推動(dòng)利潤和現(xiàn)金流在2022年再創(chuàng)新高，今年的好日子將會(huì)變得更好。”

Rystad表示，對于公共上游運(yùn)營商來說，這不僅僅是一個(gè)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的自由現(xiàn)金流。運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金今年預(yù)計(jì)也將迅速增長，首次突破1萬億美元的門檻。預(yù)計(jì)1.1萬億美元的總額比2021年7190億美元的水平增加了56%，這是自2014年以來最高的年度總額。

運(yùn)營中的現(xiàn)金通常用于新投資和財(cái)務(wù)成本，如債務(wù)支付和股息。2020年，來自運(yùn)營的現(xiàn)金減少了近2000億美元，約35%，這意味著企業(yè)用于資助新活動(dòng)和向所有者發(fā)放薪酬的資金減少了。因此，2020年的投資也下降了，減少了近1000億美元，約30%。

盡管運(yùn)營現(xiàn)金增長強(qiáng)勁，但預(yù)計(jì)今年的投資不會(huì)大幅增長，從2021年的2580億美元小幅增至2860億美元。投資比率顯示出創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流和利潤之間的差距，以及這些意外之財(cái)用于再投資的比例。

在過去的十年里，這一比率一直在波動(dòng)，平均在72%左右。但是，今年的投資比率將下降到自1980年代初以來的最低值26%。

低投資率和飆升的自由現(xiàn)金流表明，上市勘探開發(fā)公司將有大量現(xiàn)金可用來償還債務(wù)或向股東派發(fā)股息。去年大部分利潤都花在了減少債務(wù)上，這使得上游運(yùn)營商的財(cái)務(wù)狀況非常健康。這樣做的結(jié)果是，今年預(yù)期的巨額利潤中，有很大一部分可能會(huì)支付給股東。

到2022年，幾乎所有大型上市勘探開發(fā)企業(yè)的投資比率都將在20%～30%之間。美國西方石油公司的比例最低，約為20%，而超級巨頭埃克森美孚預(yù)計(jì)將在2022年實(shí)現(xiàn)最大的自由現(xiàn)金流增長，增長約180億美元。

赫斯公司在這些公司中是一個(gè)例外，該公司的投資率約為45%，原因是該公司計(jì)劃增加在圭亞那和美國Bakken頁巖地區(qū)的投資。

季廷偉 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

Public E&Ps To Smash Profit Record With $834Bn In 2022

Public exploration and production companies are on track to shatter previous record profits this year as high oil and gas prices and surging demand drive financial success.

Rystad Energy research shows that total free cash flow, a company’s cash from operations after accounting for outflows and asset maintenance, will balloon to $834 billion, a 70 percent increase from the $493 billion profits in 2021.

Total FCF from public E&Ps fell to around $126 billion in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing oil price collapse, halving the prior year’s total. As the global economy rebounded and fuel demand increased, last year’s FCF levels surged to nearly $500 billion, the highest profits ever for the upstream industry.

“The current financial health of public upstream operators is at an all-time high. Still, the good times are set to get even better this year, thanks to a perfect storm of factors pushing profits and cash flow to another record high in 2022,” says Espen Erlingsen, Rystad Energy’s head of upstream research.

According to Rystad, it is not just a record high FCF on the table for public upstream operators. Cash from operations is also expected to rocket this year, breaking the $1 trillion threshold for the first time. The $1.1 trillion projected annual total is a 56 percent jump from 2021 levels of $719 billion, which was the highest yearly total since 2014.

Cash from operations is typically used to fund new investments and financial costs, such as debt payments and dividends. In 2020, cash from operations dropped by almost $200 billion, or around 35 percent, implying that companies had less money to finance new activity and issue payouts to their owners. As a result, investments also dropped in 2020, falling by almost $100 billion or around 30 percent.

Despite the robust growth in cash from operations, investments are not expected to grow significantly this year, inching up to $286 billion from $258 billion in 2021. The investment ratio shows the disparity between record cash flow and profits, and the portion of those windfalls that are reinvested.

This ratio has fluctuated during the past decade, averaging around 72 percent. This year, however, the projected investment ratio is expected to plunge to 26 percent, the lowest since the early 1980s.

The meager investment ratio and soaring FCF indicate that public E&P companies will have significant cash available to pay down debt or fork out dividends to shareholders. Much of last year’s profit was spent on reducing debt, which has left upstream operators in a very healthy financial position. The upshot of this is that a significant portion of the vast profits anticipated this year will likely be paid out to shareholders.

Almost all the large public E&P companies will have an investment ratio between 20 and 30 percent in 2022. US independent Occidental Petroleum has the lowest ratio of about 20 percent, while supermajor ExxonMobil is expected to see the most significant increase in FCF in 2022, growing by about $18 billion.

Compatriot independent Hess is an outlier among these companies with an investment ratio of around 45 percent, due to the company’s plans to ramp up investments in Guyana and the core US shale patch of the Bakken.