據(jù)烴加工3月17日消息稱，EIA 預(yù)測(cè)，到2050年，美國(guó)的能源消耗將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，主要受人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)。在這種僅反映現(xiàn)行法律法規(guī)的案例中，到2050年，可再生能源是增長(zhǎng)最快的能源來(lái)源，而石油仍然是能源消費(fèi)的最大份額，其次是天然氣。

交通運(yùn)輸和工業(yè)加工是美國(guó)石油和其他化石液體的主要消費(fèi)者。EIA預(yù)計(jì)，從2021年到2050年，美國(guó)工業(yè)部門(mén)能源消耗的增長(zhǎng)速度將是其他任何終端使用部門(mén)的兩倍多。在工業(yè)領(lǐng)域，對(duì)石油需求增長(zhǎng)最快的是作為原料的碳?xì)錃怏w液體(HGL)。石油仍然是農(nóng)業(yè)、建筑、采礦等非制造業(yè)以及煉油加工的主要燃料。

EIA 預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)的天然氣消費(fèi)量將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，這主要是由于預(yù)期天然氣價(jià)格與歷史水平相比將保持低位。從 2020 年代初開(kāi)始，美國(guó)工業(yè)部門(mén)一直是天然氣的最大消費(fèi)國(guó)，主要是使用天然氣作為原料的化工行業(yè)，以及多個(gè)行業(yè)熱和電力消耗的增加。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，在整個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)期間，大宗化學(xué)品工業(yè)是最大的工業(yè)能源使用者，它對(duì)整個(gè)工業(yè)部門(mén)能源消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)最大。

EIA 預(yù)計(jì)，到 2020 年代中期，大宗化學(xué)品行業(yè)將建造使用天然氣和 HGL 原料生產(chǎn)化學(xué)品的設(shè)施。2020 年代前五年之后，隨著大宗化工行業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向二級(jí)化工生產(chǎn)，天然氣和HGL原料消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)放緩，二級(jí)化工生產(chǎn)側(cè)重于從商品化學(xué)品中生產(chǎn)的化學(xué)品，而不是HGL或天然氣。

石油和其他液體（主要是車(chē)用汽油和餾分燃料油）是美國(guó)運(yùn)輸部門(mén)消耗的主要燃料。車(chē)用汽油滿足公路客運(yùn)輕型車(chē)輛 (LDV) 的出行需求，而柴油消費(fèi)滿足我們假設(shè)的中型和重型貨車(chē)出行的增長(zhǎng)。

盡管空調(diào)、照明和其他終端用途的效率持續(xù)提高，電力仍然是建筑中增長(zhǎng)最快的能源來(lái)源。到2050年，現(xiàn)場(chǎng)發(fā)電(主要來(lái)自太陽(yáng)能光伏發(fā)電)的增長(zhǎng)速度快于購(gòu)買(mǎi)的建筑物電網(wǎng)電力。

EIA 預(yù)計(jì)到 2050 年，太陽(yáng)能光伏等分布式發(fā)電技術(shù)最終將提供 8% 的家庭用電和 6% 的商業(yè)建筑用電。此外，EIA 預(yù)計(jì)，用于空間供暖的天然氣是美國(guó)商業(yè)和住宅能源消耗的最大貢獻(xiàn)者，到2050年，天然氣消費(fèi)量有所下降。

朱佳妮 摘譯自 烴加工

原文如下：

Petroleum, natural gas will be the most-used fuels in the U.S. through 2050

The EIA projects that U.S. energy consumption will grow through 2050, primarily driven by population and economic growth. In this case, which reflects only current laws and regulations, renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source through 2050, and petroleum remains the largest share of energy consumption throughout that period, followed by natural gas.

Transportation and industrial processes are the primary consumers of petroleum and other liquids in the U.S. The EIA projects that U.S. industrial sector energy consumption will grow more than twice as fast as any other end-use sector from 2021 to 2050. In the industrial sector, the most growth in demand for petroleum is for hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL) used as a feedstock. Petroleum remains a major fuel for non-manufacturing industries such as agriculture, construction, and mining, as well as for refining processes.

The EIA projects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will keep growing, primarily driven by expectations that natural gas prices will remain low compared with historical levels. Starting in the early 2020s, the U.S. industrial sector has been the largest consumer of natural gas, primarily by the chemical industries that use natural gas as a feedstock and by increased heat-and-power consumption across multiple industries. Specifically, the bulk chemicals industry is the largest industrial energy user throughout the projection period, and it contributes the most to the growth in energy consumption in the industrial sector as a whole.

The EIA projects that through the mid-2020s, the bulk chemicals industry will build facilities that use natural gas and HGL feedstocks to produce chemicals. After the first half of the 2020s, growth in natural gas and HGL feedstock consumption slows as growth in the bulk chemicals industry shifts to secondary chemical production, which focuses on chemicals produced from commodity chemicals, as opposed to HGLs or natural gas.

Petroleum and other liquids (mainly motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil) are the primary fuels consumed in the U.S transportation sector. Motor gasoline meets on-road passenger light-duty vehicle (LDV) travel demand, while diesel consumption meets our assumed increases in medium- and heavy-duty freight truck travel.

Despite continued efficiency gains in air-conditioning, lighting, and other end uses, electricity continues to be the fastest-growing source of energy used in buildings. onsite electricity generation, primarily from solar photovoltaics (PV), grows faster than purchased grid electricity for buildings through 2050.

The EIA projects that distributed generation technologies such as solar PV will ultimately supply 8% of electricity consumed in households and 6% of electricity consumed in commercial buildings by 2050. In addition, the EIA projects that natural gas consumed for space heating, which is the largest single contributor to both U.S. commercial and residential delivered energy consumption, declines through 2050.