據(jù)7月12日今日油價報道，新冠肺炎疫情肯定不是石油和天然氣行業(yè)的第一次歷史性崩盤或經(jīng)濟危機，也很可能不會是最后一次。想必，會浮現(xiàn)在人們腦海中的四場歷史性石油危機分別是，70年代天然氣管道建設發(fā)展后80年代石油過剩，海灣戰(zhàn)爭引起的動蕩，2008年的金融危機，以及隨后21世紀10年代出現(xiàn)的石油過剩。石油市場唯一不變的是其波動性，這是一個興衰交替的行業(yè)。然而，不知為何，當前的情況有所不同。上個世紀以來，石油市場和整個能源行業(yè)都受到了各種危機和災難的沖擊。在50年代的蘇伊士運河危機中，埃及將這條關鍵水道收歸國有，要知道，在沖突期間，歐洲三分之二的石油都來自這條水道。因為美國參與了阿以戰(zhàn)爭，1973年歐佩克成員國對美國實施禁運，對天然氣管道和天然氣配給帶來巨大影響。

　　這家超大型石油公司周四發(fā)布了其年度《世界能源統(tǒng)計回顧》(Statistical Review of World Energy)，該文件匯編了過去一年的數(shù)據(jù)，使該公司將2020年描述為“獨一無二的一年”，對整個能源行業(yè)留下了不可磨滅的印記。這一疫情至少造成400萬人死亡，而且這一數(shù)字還在繼續(xù)上升，已報告的病例以及更多未報告的病例總數(shù)遠遠超過1.85億。經(jīng)濟損失也非常巨大，據(jù)CNBC報道，2020年全球國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值GDP)將收縮約3.3%，這是大蕭條以來和平時期最嚴重的衰退。

　　盡管疫情給幾乎所有行業(yè)和經(jīng)濟部門都留下了持久的印記，但很少有行業(yè)像能源行業(yè)一樣受到了如此重創(chuàng)，并經(jīng)歷了翻天覆地的變化。2020年伊始，全球石油需求大幅下降，世界各地的工業(yè)部門放緩或被迫關閉，汽車停在車道上，人們躲到室內(nèi)避難。石油市場的波動很快引發(fā)了歐佩克+成員國沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯之間，就如何應對這一挑戰(zhàn)的爭執(zhí)，這場爭執(zhí)演變成了一場全面的石油價格戰(zhàn)和嚴重的供應過剩，這使得全球石油儲備處于滿負荷狀態(tài)，并使“擁有石油”成為了一種負擔。以至于在2020年4月20日，更不可思議的事情發(fā)生了，油價下跌，西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油基準價格暴跌至負值，觸底接近每桶負40美元，這是歷史上的首次，給全球石油市場留下的影響，至今仍有波瀾。

　　但全球石油需求和工業(yè)活動的巨大變化也具有巨大的正外部性。英國石油公司在報告中指出，2020年的危機導致一次能源和碳排放量下降到二戰(zhàn)以來從未見過的水平。據(jù)估計，世界能源需求大幅下降了4.5%，全球因能源使用而產(chǎn)生的碳排放減少了6.3%，以任何歷史標準衡量，這都是巨大的變化。

　　創(chuàng)造一個新的、更綠色的世界似乎是可能的，隨著這一年綠色能源取得了成功，世界各地的領導人開始認真考慮實現(xiàn)碳排放的目標，并將可再生能源和能源效率納入經(jīng)濟復蘇計劃，清潔能源的轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展進程也被催化。2020年太陽能的增長是有史以來最大的一年，而作為一個整體，可再生能源部門從疫情的經(jīng)濟動蕩中“相對而言沒有受到損害”。

　　然而,隨著世界相當倉促地恢復常態(tài)，人們對“疫情將提供足夠的機會來打破工業(yè)現(xiàn)狀，從而大大改變?nèi)驕厥覛怏w排放和全球變暖的軌跡”的一些希望正在消失。但是，盡管綠色革命的希望正在消退，但它比以往任何時候都更加緊迫。因為，人們希望不會再經(jīng)歷一次“末日的洗禮”。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　How COVID-19 Triggered The Mother Of All Oil Crises

　　The COVID-19 pandemic certainly wasn’t the first historic crash or economic crisis for the oil and gas industry, and it (probably) won’t be the last. Four huge historic oil crises come to mind immediately: the 1980s oil glut which followed the gas lines of the ‘70s, the turmoil of the Gulf War, the 2008 financial crisis, and the ensuing oil glut of the 2010s. The only thing that’s consistent about oil markets is their very volatility. It’s a boom-and-bust business by nature. And yet, somehow, this time it’s different. Oil markets and the energy industry as a whole have been hit by all kinds of crises and disasters in the last century. There was the Suez Canal crisis of the ‘50s, in which Egypt nationalized the pivotal waterway which controlled two-thirds of the oil used by Europe at the time of the conflict. The oil embargo of 1973, in which Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo on the United States for their involvement in the Arab-Israeli War, leading to those aforementioned gas lines and gas rationing.

　　The supermajor oil company released its annual Statistical Review of World Energy on Thursday, and the document compiled data from the past year which led the company to describe 2020 as “a year like no other” with left indelible marks on the energy industry as a whole. The pandemic has led to the loss of 4 million lives at the very least, and those numbers continue to rise, with the number of reported cases (and scores more of unreported ones) totalling to well over 185 million. The economic toll has also been enormous, with global gross domestic product contracting around 3.3 percent in 2020 -- “the largest peacetime recession since the Great Depression,” according to reporting from CNBC.

　　While the pandemic has left a lasting mark on nearly every industry and economic sector out there, few have been as hard-hit and re-shaped as the energy industry. 2020 started off with a huge drop in global oil demand as industrial sectors around the world slowed down or closed down, and cars sat idle in driveways as people retreated inside to shelter in place. This oil market volatility soon led to a spat between the OPEC+ members of Saudi Arabia and Russia as to how to respond to the challenge, which devolved into an all-out oil-price war and severe supply glut which put global oil storage at capacity and made owning oil a liability -- so much so that on April 20, 2020, the unthinkable happened and oil prices went negative. The West Texas Intermediate crude benchmark plummeted well below zero, bottoming out at nearly negative $40 per barrel, a historic first which would leave waves in the global oil market that are still reverberating today.

　　But the massive change in global oil demand and industrial activity also had huge positive externalities. In their report, BP notes that the 2020 global health crisis resulted in falling rates of primary energy and carbon emissions at levels that we haven’t seen since World War II. World energy demand is estimated to have dropped by a whopping 4.5 percent and worldwide carbon emissions resulting from energy use contracted by 6.3 percent -- massive changes by any historical measure.

　　A new, greener world seemed possible and the clean energy transition was catalyzed as green energy had a gangbusters year and world leaders in all corners of the globe got serious about meeting emissions goals and working renewables and energy efficiency into their economic recovery packages. Solar power had its biggest growth year ever, and as a whole the renewable energy sector emerged from the pandemic’s economic turmoil “relatively unscathed.”

　　Some of that hope, however, that the pandemic would provide enough perspective and enough of a break in the momentum of industry and status quo to seriously change the trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, is falling away as the world rather hastily returns to business as usual. While the hope of the green revolution is fading, however, it’s more urgent than ever before. Hopefully it won’t take another taste of the end of days to.

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