據6月15日Rigzone消息：原油市場上一些知名交易員一致表示，原油價格在今年迄今上漲近50%后將繼續攀升。

　　周二，紐約期貨價格上漲1.8%，達到2018年10月以來的最高水平。在英國《金融時報》全球大宗商品峰會上，嘉能可(Glencore)和維托爾集團(Vitol Group)均表示，他們預計油價將進一步上漲。Trafigura首席執行官Jeremy Weir稱，由于該行業投資及供應不足，原油價格甚至有可能達到每桶100美元。

　　Again Capital合伙人John Kilduff表示："所有人都在計算需求上升和生產商不愿重返市場、向市場注入更多石油的問題。因此，結構性供需缺口正在不斷擴大。"

　　隨著新冠肺炎疫苗接種計劃的加速，原油價格今年大幅上漲。在英國《金融時報》全球大宗商品峰會上，嘉能可(Glencore)的Alex Sanna表示，全球需求應在明年第三季度恢復正常，而原油價格可能因更廣泛的疫苗接種和通脹壓力而走高。Vitol首席執行官Russell Hardy表示，盡管柴油和石化產品需求已經處于疫情前水平，但油價仍有"更多上行空間"。

　　與此同時，資金繼續更廣泛地流向大宗商品領域。美國銀行對基金經理的月度調查顯示，看漲大宗商品的押注已經超過比特幣，成為市場上最擁擠的交易。

　　價格:

　　7月交貨的西德克薩斯中質原油價格上漲1.24美元，收于每桶72.12美元。8月份交割的布倫特原油期貨上漲1.13美元，收于每桶73.99美元。

　　進一步看石油期貨曲線，市場出現了供應緊張的跡象。周二，最近的兩份西德克薩斯中質原油12月份合約的價差收于每桶6美元以上，為2019年9月以來的最高收盤水平，這表明交易員押注市場將走強。

　　彭博社的一項調查顯示，美國上周的原油庫存預計已下降250萬桶。由行業資助的美國石油協會將在周二晚些時候報告其庫存數據，而美國政府將在周三公布其庫存數據。

　　Kilduff說:“從不斷減少庫存和讓我們在全球范圍內恢復緊縮的角度來看，現在是關鍵時刻。”

　　然而，在夏季駕駛季節開始之際，國內燃料需求卻顯得有些低迷。美國汽油供應目前處于三個月高位，汽油裂解價差約為三個多月低位。

　　瑞穗證券期貨部門主管Bob Yawger表示，在5月份colonial管道關閉后，運營商的汽油進口量可能超過了需求。

　　馮娟 摘譯自 Rigzone

　　原文如下：

　　Oil Price Rally for 2021 Approaches 50%

　　Oil climbed as a chorus of prominent traders in the crude market said prices will continue to rise after a nearly 50% rally so far this year.

　　Futures in New York advanced 1.8% on Tuesday to the highest level since October 2018. At the FT Commodities Global summit, Glencore Plc and Vitol Group both said they see further gains in oil. There’s even a chance crude prices could hit $100 a barrel on a lack of supply amid underinvestment in the sector, according to Trafigura CEO Jeremy Weir.

　　“Everybody’s continuing to do the math on rising demand and hesitancy among producers to dive back in and put more oil in the market,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, LLC. “So there’s a developing structural supply-demand deficit.”

　　Crude has soared this year in the wake of accelerating Covid-19 vaccination programs. At the FT Commodities Global summit, Glencore’s Alex Sanna said global demand should return to normal in the third quarter of next year, and crude prices may move higher on more widespread vaccinations and inflationary pressures. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said while diesel and petrochemical demand is already at pre-Covid levels, there is a “little bit more upside” for oil prices.

　　Meanwhile, money continues to rotate into the commodities sector more broadly. A monthly survey of fund managers by Bank of America showed that bullish commodities bets had overtaken Bitcoin as the most crowded trade in markets.

　　Prices:

　　West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery advanced $1.24 to settle at $72.12 a barrel.

　　Brent for August settlement gained $1.13 to end the session at $73.99 a barrel.

　　Further along the oil futures curve, there are signs of market tightness. The difference between the nearest two WTI December contracts on Tuesday closed at more than $6 a barrel, the strongest close since September 2019, a sign traders are betting on a stronger market.

　　In the U.S., crude stockpiles are expected to have dropped 2.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey. The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will report its inventory data later Tuesday, while the U.S. government will release its tally on Wednesday.

　　“It’s crunch time here in terms of drawing down continuously on inventories and getting us back to tightness globally,” said Kilduff. “That’s helping to grind higher.”

　　However, domestic fuel demand has been somewhat lackluster at the start of the summer driving season. U.S. gasoline supplies are currently sitting at the highest in three months and the gasoline crack spread, a rough measure of the profit from refining crude into fuel, is at around the lowest in more than three months.

　　Operators may have juiced imports of gasoline more than needed in the wake of the Colonial pipeline shutdown back in May, according to Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.

　　“You would think with crude oil ripping like this, it would drag the products along for the ride and it almost always does,” said Yawger. “You rarely see a disconnect this bad.”

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