據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)5月15日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國能源信息署（EIA）公布了2021年5月的短期能源展望。由于對(duì)新冠疫情的應(yīng)對(duì)仍在不斷演變，因此該研究仍面臨更大的不確定性。經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)在去年第二季度達(dá)到多年低點(diǎn)后顯著增加。

　　據(jù)EIA估計(jì)，4月份全球石油和液體燃料的日消耗量為9620萬桶，比2020年4月增加了1580萬桶，但比2019年4月的水平減少了400萬桶。2021年全球石油和液體燃料的日均消耗量將達(dá)到9770萬桶，比2020年增加540萬桶。到2022年，石油和液體燃料的日消費(fèi)量將增加370萬桶，日均達(dá)到1.014億桶。

　　今年2月，美國原油日均產(chǎn)量為990萬桶，比1月減少120萬桶。今年2月，低溫導(dǎo)致得克薩斯州原油產(chǎn)量大幅下降，其他州也出現(xiàn)了小幅下降。EIA估計(jì)，生產(chǎn)中斷一般僅限于2月份，3月份美國原油產(chǎn)量上升至1090萬桶/天，4月份上升至近1100萬桶/天。由于預(yù)測(cè)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的均價(jià)仍高于55美元/桶，預(yù)計(jì)未來幾個(gè)月生產(chǎn)商將鉆探并完成足夠的油井，以抵消現(xiàn)有油井的下降。此外，預(yù)測(cè)聯(lián)邦近海墨西哥灣的新項(xiàng)目也有助于提高產(chǎn)量。美國的原油產(chǎn)量將在2021年第四季度達(dá)到日均1130萬桶，然后在2022年上升到日均1180萬桶。

　　郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　GLOBAL OIL ConSUMPTION TO AVERAGE 101.4 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2022

　　The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released it short-term Energy outlook for May 2021. The study remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Economic activity has increased significantly after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020.

　　The EIA estimates that the world consumed 96.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and liquid fuels in April, an increase of 15.8 million b/d from April 2020 but 4.0 million b/d less than April 2019 levels. The global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is a 5.4 million b/d increase from 2020. The consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.4 million b/d.

　　U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.9 million b/d in February 2021, which was down by 1.2 million b/d from January. In February, cold temperatures caused significant declines in crude oil production in Texas, as well as smaller declines in other states. The EIA estimates that production outages were generally limited to February and that U.S. crude oil production rose to 10.9 million b/d in March and to almost 11.0 million b/d in April. Because the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains above $55/b in the forecast, it is expected that producers will drill and complete enough wells in the coming months to offset declines at existing wells. In addition, new projects in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico contribute to rising production in the forecast. U.S. crude oil production will averages 11.3 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2021 and then rise to average 11.8 million b/d in 2022.

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