據(jù)彭博社5月12日消息稱，國(guó)際能源署表示，盡管印度疫情再次使需求受到打擊，但全球疫情造成的供應(yīng)過(guò)剩已經(jīng)消除。
IEA周三表示，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家目前的過(guò)剩石油庫(kù)存僅為去年需求驟降時(shí)的一小部分，OPEC及其盟友的減產(chǎn)耗盡了過(guò)剩庫(kù)存。不過(guò)，該機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為，在今年晚些時(shí)候恢復(fù)之前，隨著新冠肆虐印度，全球消費(fèi)將暫時(shí)受挫。
IEA在其月度報(bào)告中表示：“去年Covid-19需求沖擊期間積累的過(guò)高的世界石油庫(kù)存已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到更正常的水平。但是印度的Covid危機(jī)提醒我們，石油需求前景仍充滿不確定性。在疫情得到控制之前，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)可能會(huì)持續(xù)。”
隨著中國(guó)和美國(guó)的燃料消費(fèi)回升，今年石油市場(chǎng)的復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭得以延續(xù)，將倫敦國(guó)際原油價(jià)格推高至每桶約69美元。
IEA稱，今年3月，發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的石油庫(kù)存僅比2015年至2019年的平均水平高3690萬(wàn)桶，低于去年夏季約2.5億桶的過(guò)剩水平。與2016年至2020年的平均水平相比，過(guò)剩原油僅為170萬(wàn)桶，還不到一艘超級(jí)油輪的容量。
需求正遭遇暫時(shí)挫折，由于疫情在印度蔓延，預(yù)計(jì)第二季度印度石油日消費(fèi)量將減少63萬(wàn)桶。對(duì)2021年全球石油需求的估計(jì)減少了27萬(wàn)桶/天，降至9640萬(wàn)桶/天。總部位于巴黎的IEA為大多數(shù)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體提供咨詢服務(wù)。
IEA石油市場(chǎng)和工業(yè)部門(mén)負(fù)責(zé)人Toril Bosoni在接受彭博社電視采訪時(shí)表示“需求前景仍然脆弱。不過(guò)，該機(jī)構(gòu)“預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年需求增長(zhǎng)將強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。”
在經(jīng)歷了2020年前所未有的暴跌之后，今年全球石油消費(fèi)量有望反彈540萬(wàn)桶/日，漲幅為6%。復(fù)蘇將在下半年將加劇勢(shì)頭，導(dǎo)致庫(kù)存進(jìn)一步減少。
這將給以沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯為首的由23個(gè)國(guó)家組成的歐佩克+聯(lián)盟帶來(lái)一個(gè)選擇:要么進(jìn)一步恢復(fù)暫停的石油產(chǎn)量，要么繼續(xù)收緊全球市場(chǎng)。
歐佩克及其合作伙伴正在分3個(gè)月恢復(fù)約200萬(wàn)桶的日產(chǎn)量。IEA的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，當(dāng)7月份增產(chǎn)完成時(shí)，對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求仍將高于產(chǎn)量。
根據(jù)IEA的報(bào)告，歐佩克13個(gè)成員國(guó)上個(gè)月的日產(chǎn)量約為2500萬(wàn)桶，而第三季度的供應(yīng)需求預(yù)計(jì)為2810萬(wàn)桶。
朱佳妮 摘譯自 彭博社
原文如下：
IEA Declares End to Global Oil Glut
The International Energy Agency said the supply glut created by the global pandemic has cleared, even as demand suffers a blow from a resurgence of the virus in India.
Surplus oil inventories in developed nations are now just a small fraction of the levels seen when demand collapsed last year, with output cuts by OPEC and its allies draining the excess, the IEA said on Wednesday. Still, the agency sees a temporary setback for global consumption as infections rock India, before the recovery resumes later in the year.
“Bloated world oil inventories that built up during last year’s Covid-19 demand shock have returned to more normal levels,” the IEA said in its monthly report. “But India’s Covid crisis is a reminder that the outlook for oil demand is mired in uncertainty. Until the pandemic is brought under control, market volatility is likely to persist.”
Oil markets have extended their recovery this year as fuel consumption roars back in China and the U.S., buoying international crude prices to about $69 a barrel in London.
In March, oil inventories in developed nations stood just 36.9 million barrels above the average level from 2015 to 2019, down from a surplus of about 250 million barrels last summer, the IEA said. Compared with the average for 2016 to 2020, the excess is just 1.7 million barrels, less than the capacity of a single supertanker.
Demand is suffering a temporary setback, with forecasts for Indian consumption in the second quarter cut by 630,000 barrels a day as a brutal wave of infections spreads across the country. Estimates for global demand in 2021 were trimmed by 270,000 barrels a day, to 96.4 million a day. The Paris-based IEA advises most major economies.
“The outlook for demand remains fragile,” Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, said in a Bloomberg television interview. Still, the agency is “expecting a very strong recovery in demand growth in the second half of the year.”
Global consumption is on track for a rebound of 5.4 million barrels a day, or 6%, this year after 2020’s unprecedented slump. The recovery will gather momentum in the second half, causing stockpiles to dwindle even further.
That will present the 23-nation OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia with a choice: restore some more of the production they’ve halted, or continue to tighten global markets.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are in the process of reviving about 2 million barrels of daily output in three monthly installments. When the increase is completed in July, the IEA’s data indicates that demand for the cartel’s crude will still be higher than its production.
OPEC’s 13 members pumped about 25 million barrels a day last month, while demand for their supply in the third quarter is projected at 28.1 million barrels, according to the IEA report.
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