???? 據今日油價4月1日報道，10多年來，秘魯一直在努力建設其油氣部門，并提高原油儲量和產量。2020年對于這個安第斯國家飽受危機困擾的石油工業來說尤其困難。國家發展環境、新冠肺炎疫情以及持續的基礎設施中斷都影響了油氣的產量。

????盡管秘魯是拉丁美洲地區首批啟動出行限制措施以減緩疫情傳播的國家之一，但這個安第斯國家2020年的國內生產總值(GDP)收縮了超過11%。大宗商品價格走軟加劇了這一情況。要知道，金屬采礦業是推動經濟增長的關鍵因素，但全球卻陷入了一場由疫情引發的衰退。

??? 秘魯有計劃的經濟復蘇不僅依賴于恢復這個安第斯國家經濟上至關重要的采礦部門的活動，而且依賴于加強飽經沖突的石油工業的生產。截至2020年9月，由于秘魯亞馬遜地區針對石油行業的暴力抗議活動迫使油田和泵站關閉，原油產量降至幾十年來的最低點，每日29165桶。盡管原油產量大幅下降，但秘魯的天然氣產量繼續增長，2020年9月達到130萬立方英尺/天，遠低于2020年4月的低點7.9億立方英尺/天。

??? 2020年，秘魯國家石油公司的數據顯示，秘魯全國石油產量平均為39738桶/天，比2019年下降25%。原油產量的急劇下降，加上2020年3月的油價暴跌，給秘魯經濟帶來了壓力。

????2021年2月，秘魯的油氣產量表明該國正在恢復生產。當月的石油產量環比上升1%，至35388桶/天，而天然氣產量相對持平，僅增長0.34%，至85430桶/天。2021年2月，秘魯的油氣總產量達到321660桶油當量/天，比前一個月增長1%。

????盡管有這些穩定的增長，安第斯國家的石油和天然氣產量仍然大大低于疫情爆發前的水平。盡管天然氣產量保持穩定，但秘魯2021年2月的原油產量比2020年同期下降42%，液化天然氣產量下降5%。因此，該拉丁美洲國家當月的油氣總產量比2020年2月下降了12%，這表明秘魯的油氣部門要恢復到一起前的產量還有很長的路要走。

????在秘魯的亞馬遜地區，石油行業面臨的一個主要阻力是大量的反對聲音，這是因為這個安第斯國家的大部分已探明石油儲量和正在運營的油田都在亞馬遜盆地。根據秘魯石油公司的數據，該國已探明石油儲量的48%(總計344500桶)位于亞馬遜流域。2021年2月的最新生產數據顯示，大約四分之一的秘魯石油來自亞馬遜，其中20.5%來自東北部叢林。

????擴大秘魯的油氣生產被認為是幫助該國從疫情中恢復的關鍵部分。雖然這個安第斯國家沒有像厄瓜多爾、哥倫比亞、巴西和阿根廷那樣專注于建設石油工業，但它擁有相當大的石油潛力。該國位于南美油氣資源最豐富的地區之一——sub-Andean。正是這種趨勢賦予了哥倫比亞、厄瓜多爾和阿根廷可觀的石油資源。在秘魯已經發現了18個沉積盆地。秘魯國家石油公司估計，可采石油資源超過140億桶。

????疫情對經濟造成的嚴重影響，最近的油價反彈使得重啟石油行業成為首要任務。盡管產量正在上升，但需要吸引大量外國投資，才能使生產恢復到疫情爆發前的水平。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

????原文如下：

????Peru’s Oil Industry Is Key To Its Pandemic Recovery

????Peru has struggled for over a decade to build its hydrocarbon sector and boost crude oil reserves and production. 2020 was particularly difficult for the Andean country’s crisis-ridden petroleum industry. ongoing social conflict, notably in Peru’s northeastern Amazon, the COVID-19 pandemic, and ongoing infrastructure outages all impacted hydrocarbon output. Those issues were amplified by the Latin American country’s long-running political crisis and the socioeconomic fallout from the pandemic.

????Like its Latin American neighbors, Peru’s economy was harshly impacted by the pandemic. The Andean country’s 2020 gross domestic product contracted by over 11% despite Peru being one of the first regional countries to initiate a lockdown to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. That was worsened by softer commodity prices, with metals mining being a key economic driver, as the world slumped into a pandemic-induced recession. Peru’s planned economic recovery depends not only on restarting activity in the Andean country’s economically crucial mining sector but bolstering production in the strife-torn petroleum industry. By September 2020, crude oil production had fallen to a multi-decade low of 29,165 barrels daily as violent protests against the petroleum industry in Peru’s Amazon forced oilfields and pumping stations to be shuttered. While crude oil output fell sharply, Peru’s natural gas production continued to grow, reaching 1.3 million cubic feet daily for September 2020, well above the April 2020 low of 790 million cubic feet daily. In 2020, data from PeruPetro shows that Peru’s national oil production averaged 39,738 barrels per day, which is 25% lower than 2019. That sharp decline in crude oil output combined with the March 2020 oil price collapse weighed on Peru’s economy.

????In February 2021, Peru’s hydrocarbon production demonstrated that it was on the road to recovery. That month’s oil production (Spanish) climbed by 1% month over month to 35,388 barrels per day while natural gas liquids remained relatively flat - only gaining 0.34% at 85,430 barrels of oil equivalent daily. It was natural gas (Spanish) which experienced the largest gain, rising 1.8% to 1.25 million cubic feet per day. That saw Peru’s total hydrocarbon output for February 2021 hit 321,660 barrels of oil equivalent per day which was a 1% increase compared to a month earlier.

????Despite those steady gains the Andean country’s oil and natural gas production was still substantially lower than pre-pandemic levels. Peru’s February 2021 crude oil output was 42% lower than for the comparable period in 2020 while natural gas liquids were 5% less, although natural gas production remained stable. As a result, the Latin American country’s total combined hydrocarbon production for that month was 12% lower than for February 2020, indicating there is a considerable journey ahead for Peru’s hydrocarbon sector for it to recover to pre-pandemic production.

????A key headwind for the petroleum industry is the considerable community dissent and lack of social license in Peru’s Amazon. This is because a large portion of the Andean country’s proved oil reserves and operational oilfields are in the Amazon basin. According to data from Peru’s hydrocarbon regulator PeruPetro, 48% of the country’s proved oil reserves, totaling 344,500 barrels, is in the Amazon. The latest production data for February 2021 shows that roughly a quarter of Peru’s oil is extracted from the Amazon with 20.5% from the northeastern jungle which is the region most affected by the unrest. That explains why the substantial social conflict in Northeastern Peru coupled with a distinct lack of social license has significantly impacted Peru’s crude oil output.

????Expanding Peru’s hydrocarbon production has been identified as a key part of helping the country to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. While the Andean country has not focused on building its oil industry in the same way Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina have, it possesses considerable petroleum potential. The country is located on one of the most prolific hydrocarbon trends in South America, the sub-Andean megatrend. It is that trend that has endowed Colombia, Ecuador, and Argentina with their considerable petroleum resources. There have been 18 sedimentary basins identified in Peru. PeruPetro has determined they contain 421,667 barrels of proved and possible oil reserves as well as estimated recoverable petroleum resources of over 14 billion barrels.

????The considerable economic fallout from the pandemic has left the country in crisis. Now, the recent oil price rally makes restarting its oil industry a top priority. While production is rising, Lima needs to attract substantial foreign investment if operations are to return to a pre-pandemic level.

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