???? 據(jù)3月3日FX Empire報(bào)道，埃克森美孚將于周三美國(guó)股市開(kāi)盤前舉行2021年投資者日活動(dòng)，隨后，歐佩克+將宣布其產(chǎn)量決定。
????這些關(guān)鍵事件是全球石油行業(yè)前景的關(guān)鍵晴雨表。在這些關(guān)鍵事件發(fā)生之前，埃克森美孚的股價(jià)一直在上漲，到2021年為止上漲了36%。在1月中旬形成技術(shù)上的“黃金交叉”后，該股自去年11月以來(lái)的上行趨勢(shì)依然堅(jiān)挺。然而，由于其14天相對(duì)強(qiáng)弱指數(shù)(RSI)接近超買區(qū)域，該股一旦達(dá)到70的臨界點(diǎn)，就很容易下挫。
????埃克森美孚投資者日的主要考慮因素為，當(dāng)埃克森美孚在2020年舉行投資日時(shí)，世界還沒(méi)有完全掌握疫情造成的破壞程度。現(xiàn)在，大約12個(gè)月過(guò)去了，隨著油價(jià)驚人的反彈，投資者將急切地想知道埃克森美孚打算如何進(jìn)軍后疫情時(shí)代市場(chǎng)的更多細(xì)節(jié)。
????一是，投資策略。
????為了利用油價(jià)復(fù)蘇的機(jī)會(huì)而增加資本支出，也可能危及埃克森美孚每年150億美元的巨額股息承諾。該公司最近表示，其現(xiàn)金流足以滿足布倫特原油50美元/桶的股息承諾。
????然而，市場(chǎng)將注意到埃克森美孚2月2日發(fā)布的最新財(cái)報(bào)。該公司宣布，自1999年合并形成美國(guó)最大石油公司以來(lái)，2020年首次出現(xiàn)年度凈虧損，也是大約40年來(lái)首次出現(xiàn)年度凈虧損。在大型石油公司被遺忘了一年之后，投資者想知道埃克森美孚是否能在強(qiáng)化資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和利用未來(lái)機(jī)遇所需支出之間取得微妙的平衡，同時(shí)還要努力安撫渴望派息的股東。
????二是，碳排放。
????埃克森美孚的歐洲競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，如英國(guó)石油公司(BP)、荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)和道達(dá)爾(Total)，已經(jīng)開(kāi)始著手控制石油產(chǎn)量，并在2050年前大幅降低碳排放。相比之下，埃克森美孚顯然不愿效仿競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的環(huán)保議程，因此受到了強(qiáng)烈批評(píng)。
????埃克森將在多大程度上實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零目標(biāo)，還有待觀察。有鑒于此，埃克森美孚在本周任命了維權(quán)投資者杰夫?烏本(Jeff Ubben)進(jìn)入董事會(huì)，以使該公司更注重環(huán)保，同時(shí)成立一個(gè)新的業(yè)務(wù)部門，專注于低碳排放技術(shù)。
????不過(guò)，要安撫Engine 1等維權(quán)投資者，埃克森美孚可能還需要付出更多。要知道，Engine 1持有超過(guò)4億美元的埃克森股票。
????盡管埃克森美孚的投資者日有許多可能撼動(dòng)其股價(jià)的事態(tài)發(fā)展，但大型石油股可能會(huì)在第二天迎來(lái)更大的波動(dòng)。
????三是，歐佩克+供應(yīng)決定迫在眉睫。
????周四，歐佩克+將決定其23個(gè)成員國(guó)4月的產(chǎn)量水平，下月全球市場(chǎng)可能恢復(fù)至多150萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量。這150萬(wàn)桶包括沙特阿拉伯在2月和3月自愿額外削減的100萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量。
????市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克將增加至少50萬(wàn)桶/天的原油供應(yīng)，因此，在考慮歐佩克+供應(yīng)限制措施放松的前景時(shí)，油價(jià)在最近幾個(gè)交易日出現(xiàn)下跌。如果有消息證實(shí)，從下個(gè)月開(kāi)始，全球市場(chǎng)將重新涌入150萬(wàn)桶/天的石油，甚至可能將布倫特原油價(jià)格再次拉回到每桶60美元以下的水平，并令今年迄今為止21%的漲幅減少。
????需要澄清的是，這并不是說(shuō)油價(jià)會(huì)在本周回落。全球需求復(fù)蘇似乎足夠強(qiáng)勁，足以在4月份吸收更多的石油供應(yīng)。然而，本周將由歐佩克+決定的是供應(yīng)方面的因素，這可能會(huì)決定布蘭特原油價(jià)格是否會(huì)在會(huì)后立即突破60美元/桶。
????歐佩克+的決定不僅會(huì)影響布倫特和西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格，未來(lái)幾天還可能影響石油公司的股價(jià)。鑒于投資者在未來(lái)幾天有很多東西需要消化，這兩件事可能會(huì)決定與石油相關(guān)的資產(chǎn)在短期內(nèi)的表現(xiàn)。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 FX Empire
????原文如下：
????Big Week for Big Oil
????Exxon Mobil is set to hold its 2021 Investor Day before US markets open on Wednesday, a day before OPEC+ announces its output decision.
????In the lead up to these key events, which serve as key barometers for the global oil industry’s outlook, Exxon Mobil’s share prices have been on a tear, surging 36% so far in 2021. Having formed a technical “golden cross” in mid-January, the stock’s uptrend since November remains firmly intact. However, with its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) flirting with overbought territory, this stock has been prone to dip once that 70 threshold is reached.
????Key considerations for Exxon Mobil’s Investor Day
????When Exxon held its investor day in 2020, the world had yet to fully realize the full extent of the damage wrought by Covid-19. Now, some 12 months later and with the astonishing recovery in oil prices since, investors will be eager for more details on how Exxon intends to forge ahead into the post-pandemic era:Investment strategy
????Greater capital expenditure, with the aim of taking advantage of the oil price recovery, could also threaten Exxon’s massive pledge of $15 billion in annual dividends. The company stated recently that its cashflow would be enough to meet its dividend commitment at $50 Brent.
????Yet, markets will be cognizant of Exxon’s latest earnings announcement on 2 February, declaring its first annual net loss since its 1999 merger that created the largest US oil company, also its first annual net loss in about 40 years. In the aftermath of a year to forget for Big Oil, investors want to know whether Exxon can get that tricky balance right between strengthening its balance sheet and the spending required to take advantage of future opportunities, all while trying to appease dividend-hungry shareholders.
????Carbon emissions
????Exxon’s European rivals, such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total, are already making the shift to curb oil and drastically lower their carbon emissions by 2050. In contrast, Exxon has been loudly criticized over their apparent reluctance to match their rivals’ adoption of the green agenda.
????It remains to be seen how much Exxon will warm up (no pun intended) to a net-zero carbon goal. With that in mind, Exxon appointed activist investor Jeff Ubben to its board just this week to give Exxon a more environmentally-friendly tilt while also setting up a new business unit to focus on low-emission technologies.
????Still, much more is likely required out of Exxon in order to appease activist investors such as Engine No.1, which holds over $400 million in Exxon shares.
????While Exxon Mobil’s Investor Day holds plenty of potential developments to rock its share prices, more volatility could be in store for Big Oil stocks the day after.
????OPEC+ supply decision looms
????On Thursday, OPEC+ is set to decide on the output levels for its 23 members for April, and could restore as much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) back into global markets next month. That 1.5 million figure includes Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cuts of 1 million bpd that had been implemented throughout February and March.
????Markets are already expecting the alliance to ease at least 500,000 bpd back into the world, hence the declines in oil benchmarks in recent sessions as they ponder the prospects of OPEC+ taps being loosened. Confirmation that a full 1.5 million bpd being flooded back into global markets starting next month could even drag Brent back to sub-$60 levels once more, and pare down its 21% in year-to-date gains.
????To be clear, this isn’t to suggest we could see oil prices capitulate this week. The global demand recovery appears robust enough to absorb more incoming barrels of oil in April. However, it’s the supply side of the equation as will be determined by OPEC+ this week that could determine whether Brent above $60/bbl is warranted in the immediate aftermath.
????The decision by OPEC+ wouldn’t just impact Brent and WTI crude prices, but is also likely to feed into the stock prices of oil companies over the coming days. With investors having plenty to digest over the next couple of days, this pair of events could dictate how oil-linked assets perform over the immediate term.
