???? 據(jù)2月21日The Motley Fool報(bào)道，今年以來，石油價(jià)格一路飆升，漲幅超過25%，最近已突破每桶60美元。今年的飆升已將原油價(jià)格推升至疫情爆發(fā)前的水平之上。與此同時(shí)，油價(jià)的上漲可能不會(huì)結(jié)束，因?yàn)樵谛枨箝_始復(fù)蘇之際，歐佩克和其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)正嚴(yán)格控制供應(yīng)。
????在這樣的背景下，如果油價(jià)持續(xù)上漲，合同鉆井公司Helmerich & Payne、油氣生產(chǎn)商德文能源和設(shè)備制造商卡特彼勒這三家公司的股票價(jià)格具有最大的上行潛力。
????魯本·格雷格·布魯爾(Helmerich & Payne):油價(jià)下跌時(shí)，能源服務(wù)公司會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊，因?yàn)樗麄兊目蛻魰?huì)減少支出。但當(dāng)價(jià)格開始上漲時(shí)，趨勢(shì)就會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向另一個(gè)方向。這就是為什么如果油價(jià)飆升，Helmerich & Payne應(yīng)該會(huì)從中受益。
????一方面，該公司擁有非常強(qiáng)勁的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，債務(wù)權(quán)益比僅為15%，資金流動(dòng)性強(qiáng)，約為13億美元。換句話說，有足夠的資金來應(yīng)付今天的困難時(shí)期，也有足夠的現(xiàn)金來抓住下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)的機(jī)會(huì)。這意味著，一旦需求再次回升，就可以重新轉(zhuǎn)向增長(zhǎng)。
????另一方面，該公司擁有一支龐大的高端鉆機(jī)隊(duì)伍。簡(jiǎn)單地說，最好的鉆井平臺(tái)將首先恢復(fù)工作。具體來說，其234臺(tái)高端鉆機(jī)中目前只有80臺(tái)是外包的，因此還有很大的上行潛力。同樣值得注意的是，Helmerich & Payne的主要市場(chǎng)是美國(guó)的水力壓裂領(lǐng)域，與其他鉆探方法相比，水力壓裂可以相對(duì)較快地提高產(chǎn)量。
????因此，在需求回升之前，Helmerich & Payne有足夠的實(shí)力生存下去，這些鉆井平臺(tái)最有可能首先重新投入使用，并在一個(gè)應(yīng)該能夠迅速增長(zhǎng)的市場(chǎng)上運(yùn)營(yíng)。這聽起來像是一個(gè)成功的組合。
????德文能源公司Matt DiLallo:當(dāng)油價(jià)上漲時(shí)，石油生產(chǎn)商為股東創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的記錄很糟糕。他們通常會(huì)把高油價(jià)帶來的現(xiàn)金流浪費(fèi)在鉆探新油井或回購(gòu)股票上，結(jié)果下次石油市場(chǎng)崩盤時(shí)，這些資金就會(huì)化為灰燼。
????然而，今年的石油市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇可能會(huì)有所不同。美國(guó)石油生產(chǎn)商已經(jīng)承諾，隨著油價(jià)上漲，他們不會(huì)增加鉆探計(jì)劃。最重要的是，石油公司開始在向股東返還現(xiàn)金的方式上有所創(chuàng)新。德文能源公司率先推出了行業(yè)領(lǐng)先的可變紅利計(jì)劃，該公司計(jì)劃在支付可持續(xù)基本股息和維護(hù)資本計(jì)劃后，每個(gè)季度支付50%的超額現(xiàn)金。
????德文的第一個(gè)可變股利是每股0.19美元(總計(jì)1.28億美元)，是其基本季度股利0.11美元(4200萬美元)的兩倍多。由于德文的自由現(xiàn)金流隨著油價(jià)上漲而上升，這筆支付可能只是可變紅利潛力的一小部分。例如，在每桶50美元的油價(jià)下，德文今年可以產(chǎn)生超過10億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流。與此同時(shí)，以目前每桶超過60美元的油價(jià)計(jì)算，到2021年，該公司的自由現(xiàn)金流將接近17.5億美元。由于其中多達(dá)一半的資金將通過可變股息計(jì)劃返還給股東，德文今年可能會(huì)在油價(jià)上漲的情況下獲得一筆成功的投資。
????尼哈·查瑪利亞:當(dāng)同事們謹(jǐn)慎地挑選出那些應(yīng)該是油價(jià)上漲的主要受益者的石油和天然氣股票時(shí)，我推薦一家不屬于油氣行業(yè)但卻持有大量股份的公司——卡特彼勒公司。
????盡管卡特彼勒更出名的是其建筑和采礦設(shè)備，但鑒于該公司在該行業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口越來越大，油價(jià)對(duì)該公司的影響應(yīng)該比以往任何時(shí)候都更大。2020年，能源和交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)(E&T)取代建筑業(yè)，成為卡特彼勒最大的業(yè)務(wù)部門，占其總收入的近42%。不過，受石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)低迷的拖累，今年該行業(yè)的銷售額下降了21%。近年來，石油和天然氣一直是E&T最大的終端市場(chǎng)。
????卡特彼勒認(rèn)為自己在能源市場(chǎng)上有價(jià)值，這一點(diǎn)在其最近一次收購(gòu)中得到了進(jìn)一步證明——以約3.75億美元的價(jià)格收購(gòu)了Weir Group的石油和天然氣部門。油價(jià)反彈應(yīng)有助于卡特彼勒從收購(gòu)中釋放出更大的價(jià)值，盡管油價(jià)上漲鼓勵(lì)能源企業(yè)重啟資本支出計(jì)劃，并刺激對(duì)卡特彼勒擅長(zhǎng)的往復(fù)式發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)等設(shè)備的需求。
????因此，油價(jià)飆升可能是E&T的一劑強(qiáng)心針，并對(duì)卡特彼勒未來銷售和利潤(rùn)的復(fù)蘇發(fā)揮重要作用。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 The Motley Fool
????原文如下：
????Oil Is Surging: These 3 Stocks Would Be Big Winners in an Oil Boom
????Oil prices have been on fire this year, surging by more than 25% and recently topping $60 a barrel. This year's surge has pushed crude oil pricing back above its pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, oil's run might not be done since OPEC and other producers are keeping a tight lid on supplies at a time when demand is starting to recover.
????Given this backdrop, we asked some of our energy contributors which oil stocks they believe are best positioned to benefit if oil prices continue booming. They see some of the sector's best upside potential in contract driller Helmerich & Payne (NYSE:HP), oil and gas producer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), and equipment maker Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT). Here's why.
????The right tools
????Reuben Gregg Brewer (Helmerich & Payne): Energy services get roughed up when oil falls because their customers pull back on spending. But when prices start heading higher the trend goes the other direction. Which is why Helmerich & Payne should benefit if oil prices take off (even more than they have already). The company has a couple of important things going for it.
????First, it has a really strong balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 15%, and ample liquidity, roughly $1.3 billion. In other words, it has the financial strength to muddle through today's hard times and also the cash to take advantage of the next upturn. That means it can pivot back to growth as soon as demand picks up again.
????Which brings up point No. 2: It has a large fleet of high-end drilling rigs. Simply put, the best rigs will get put back to work first. To put a number on that, only 80 of its 234 high-end rigs are currently contracted out, leaving a lot of upside potential. It is worth noting, too, that Helmerich & Payne's primary market is the U.S. fracking sector, which can ramp up production relatively quickly compared to other drilling methods.
????So, Helmerich & Payne has the strength to survive until demand picks up, the rigs that will most likely get put back to work first, and operates in a market that should be able to ramp up quickly. That sounds like a winning combination.
????A gusher of dividends at higher crude prices
????Matt DiLallo (Devon Energy): Oil producers have a lousy track record of creating value for shareholders when oil prices are booming. They've usually wasted the cash flow generated at higher oil prices on drilling new wells or buying back their stock, only to have the next oil market bust incinerate that capital.
????However, this year's oil market recovery might be different. U.S. producers have promised not to ramp up their drilling programs as oil prices rise. On top of that, oil companies are starting to get creative in how they return cash to their shareholders. Devon Energy is leading that charge by launching an industry-first variable dividend program. The oil producer aims to pay out up to 50% of its excess cash each quarter after funding its sustainable base dividend and maintenance capital program.
????Devon's first variable dividend was a gusher at $0.19 per share ($128 million in total), more than double its base quarterly payout of $0.11 per share ($42 million). That payment is likely only a small taste of the variable dividend's potential since Devon's free cash flow rises with oil prices. For example, at $50 oil, Devon could produce more than $1 billion in free cash flow this year. Meanwhile, at the current oil price of more than $60 a barrel, Devon's free cash flow would approach $1.75 billion in 2021. With as much as half of those funds going back to shareholders via its variable dividend program, Devon could be a winning investment this year on booming oil prices.
????Neha Chamaria (Caterpillar): While my colleagues have prudently picked out oil and gas stocks that should be major beneficiaries from any rise in the price of oil, I'll deviate and recommend a company that doesn't quite belong to the sector but has significant stake in it nonetheless: Caterpillar.
????Although Caterpillar is better known for its construction and mining equipment, oil price should matter to the company more than ever now given its increasing exposure to the sector. To put a number to that, consider that energy and transportation (E&T) toppled construction industries to emerge as Caterpillar's largest segment in 2020, accounting for nearly 42% of its total revenue. Sales from the segment, though, declined 21% in the year, dragged largely by a depressed oil and gas market. Oil and gas has been the largest end market for E&T in recent years.
????That Caterpillar sees value in the energy markets is further evidenced by its latest acquisition -- that of the oil and gas division from The Weir Group for roughly $375 million. Oil's rebound should help Caterpillar unlock greater value from the acquisition even as higher prices encourage energy companies to revive their capital spending plans and spur demand for equipment like the reciprocating engines Caterpillar specializes in.
????Surging oil, therefore, could be a shot in the arm for E&T and play an important role in the revival of Caterpillar's sales and profits going forward.
