據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年6月30日?qǐng)?bào)道，盡管面臨能源轉(zhuǎn)型的挑戰(zhàn)，但油氣行業(yè)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者對(duì)石油需求的長(zhǎng)期復(fù)原力充滿信心。

這是近日在馬來(lái)西亞舉行的首屆亞洲能源會(huì)議發(fā)出的信息。

美國(guó)赫斯公司首席執(zhí)行官約翰·赫斯在與會(huì)期間接受CNBC記者采訪時(shí)表示：“能源轉(zhuǎn)型將需要更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，需要更多的資金，需要目前還不存在的新技術(shù)。”

埃克森美孚公司的一位高級(jí)顧問(wèn)告訴CNBC記者：“預(yù)計(jì)到2050年，液化天然氣仍將是世界主要的能源來(lái)源，即使需求增長(zhǎng)在2025年后放緩。”

總體而言，到2050年前，對(duì)液體燃料的需求預(yù)計(jì)每天將增加大約1500萬(wàn)桶。幾乎所有的需求增長(zhǎng)都將來(lái)自亞洲、非洲、中東和拉丁美洲的新興市場(chǎng)。”

本周早些時(shí)候，歐佩克秘書(shū)長(zhǎng)也表現(xiàn)出樂(lè)觀情緒，稱(chēng)歐佩克預(yù)計(jì)到2045年前全球石油日需求量將擴(kuò)大到1.1億桶。

不出所料，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，亞洲仍將是全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)的最大推動(dòng)力，標(biāo)普全球丹尼爾·耶金表示：“亞洲、非洲、中東和拉丁美洲是能源需求增長(zhǎng)的地區(qū)，未來(lái)需求還會(huì)有更多增長(zhǎng)。” 

法國(guó)道達(dá)爾能源公司首席執(zhí)行官潘彥磊對(duì)此表示贊同， “需求在亞洲。需求就在這里，亞洲有50億流動(dòng)人口，要求更好的生活方式。因此，亞洲是我們必須展望未來(lái)的方向。”

與此同時(shí)，沙特阿拉伯國(guó)家石油公司（沙特阿美）首席執(zhí)行官阿明·納賽爾指出了有關(guān)能源轉(zhuǎn)型的選擇性敘述。他在會(huì)上表示：“現(xiàn)有的轉(zhuǎn)型政策正確地試圖解決環(huán)境可持續(xù)性問(wèn)題，但同樣重要的能源安全和可負(fù)擔(dān)性問(wèn)題沒(méi)有得到重視。”納賽爾此番講話暗示這將確保石油需求的長(zhǎng)期存在。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Industry Leaders Remain Confident about Long-Term Demand

Oil and gas industry leaders are confident in the long-term resilience of oil demand despite challenges from the energy transition.

This is the message coming out of the inaugural edition of the Energy Asia conference that took place this week in Malaysia.

“Energy transition is going to take a lot longer, it’s going to cost a lot more money and need new technologies that don’t even exist today,” Hess Corp. chief executive John Hess said, as quoted by CNBC.

“Liquids are projected to remain the world’s leading energy source in 2050, even as demand growth slows beyond 2025,” a senior Exxon advisor told CNBC.

“Overall, demand for liquids is expected to rise by about 15 million barrels per day by 2050. Almost all the growth will come from the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America,” Erin McGrath also said.

Earlier this week, the secretary-general of OPEC also demonstrated optimism, saying OPEC forecast oil demand to expand to 110 million barrels daily by 2045.

Unsurprisingly, Asia will continue to be the biggest driver of oil demand over the long term, with S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin saying that “This is the region where the growth in energy demand will be, and more to come.”

TotalEnergies’ Patrick Pouyanne agrees. “The demand is in Asia. The demand is here, you have 5 billion people moving population, [asking] for a better way of life. And so this is where we must look to the future,” he said, as quoted by CNBC.

Meanwhile, Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser pointed out the selective narrative of the energy transition.

“Existing transition policies rightly attempt to address environmental sustainability, but the equally critical issues of energy security and affordability are under-emphasised,” he said at the event, suggesting this would ensure the longevity of oil demand.