據(jù)路透社4月24日?qǐng)?bào)道，因?qū)噬仙⑷蚪?jīng)濟(jì)和燃料需求前景的擔(dān)憂超過(guò)了歐佩克+減產(chǎn)導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)緊張的預(yù)期擔(dān)憂，周一油價(jià)下跌。

截至格林尼治時(shí)間4時(shí)9分，布倫特原油價(jià)格下跌75美分，跌幅0.92%，至每桶80.91美元，而美國(guó)西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格為每桶77.13美元，下跌74美分，跌幅0.95%。

上周，這兩種原油合約價(jià)格都下跌了5%以上，為五周來(lái)首次單周下跌。因美國(guó)暗示汽油需求較上年同期下降，加劇了人們對(duì)全球最大石油消費(fèi)國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。

CMC Markets分析師Tina Teng表示，疲軟的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和科技行業(yè)令人失望的企業(yè)盈利數(shù)據(jù)引發(fā)了投資者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避，此外，美元企穩(wěn)和債券收益率攀升也給大宗商品市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)壓力。

從美國(guó)到英國(guó)和歐洲的央行預(yù)計(jì)都將在5月的第一周開(kāi)會(huì)時(shí)加息，以解決居高不下的通脹問(wèn)題。

JTD能源服務(wù)總監(jiān)John Driscoll表示，“我認(rèn)為，最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)喜憂參半，央行持續(xù)干預(yù)是最近價(jià)格調(diào)整的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。不過(guò)，許多人會(huì)認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)逢低買入的機(jī)會(huì)”。

盡管如此，亞洲煉油利潤(rùn)率仍因印度頂級(jí)煉油商創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的產(chǎn)量而減弱，抑制了該地區(qū)對(duì)6月份中東供應(yīng)量的需求。

盡管如此，分析師和交易員仍然看好亞洲2023年下半年的燃料需求復(fù)蘇，因?yàn)闅W佩克+計(jì)劃從5月開(kāi)始進(jìn)一步削減供應(yīng)，這可能會(huì)收緊市場(chǎng)。

澳大利亞國(guó)家銀行的分析師表示，預(yù)計(jì)石油需求復(fù)蘇將在短期內(nèi)抵消經(jīng)合組織需求的放緩，而地緣政治因素和供應(yīng)限制增加了價(jià)格上漲的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油價(jià)格可能在第二季度末升至每桶92美元。

王佳晶 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Oil prices slide on uncertainty over global economic outlook, rate hikes

Oil prices fell on Monday as concerns about rising interest rates, the global economy and the outlook for fuel demand outweighed support from the prospect of tighter supplies on OPEC+ supply cuts, Trend reports with reference to Reuters.

Brent crude slipped 75 cents, or 0.92%, to $80.91 a barrel by 0409 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $77.13 a barrel, down 74 cents, 0.95% lower.

Both contracts fell more than 5% last week, their first weekly drop in five, as U.S. implied gasoline demand fell from a year ago, fuelling worries of a recession at the world's top oil consumer.

Weak U.S. economic data and disappointing corporate earnings from the tech sector sparked growth concerns and risk aversion among investors, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. The stabilising U.S. dollar and climbing bond yields are also pressurising commodity markets, she added.

Central banks from the United States to Britain and Europe are all expected to raise interest rates when they meet in the first week of May, seeking to tackle stubbornly high inflation.

"I would cite recent mixed economic data and continued central bank intervention as the primary drivers behind the recent price correction," said John Driscoll, director of JTD Energy Services. However, many may view this as a dip-buying opportunity, he said.

Still, refining margins in Asia have weakened on record production from top refiners of India, curbing the region's appetite for Middle East supplies loading in June.

Nevertheless, analysts and traders remained bullish about fuel demand recovery towards the second half of 2023 and as additional supply cuts planned by OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers- from May could tighten markets.

The oil demand recovery is expected to more than offset the slowdown in OECD demand in the near term, while sanctions and supply constraints add upside risk to prices, analysts at the National Australia Bank said, adding that Brent could rise to $92 a barrel by the end of the second quarter.