加拿大高級投資組合經(jīng)理埃里克·納托爾認(rèn)為，2023年原油價格將回到每桶100美元

2023年，協(xié)調(diào)的戰(zhàn)略石油儲備（SPR）釋放結(jié)束、全球經(jīng)濟逐步重新開放以及對油價制裁可能會推高油價

美國銀行預(yù)測，得益于美聯(lián)儲的鴿派轉(zhuǎn)向，布倫特原油價格可能很快突破每桶90美元

據(jù)油價網(wǎng)12月21日報道，加拿大投資管理公司Ninepoint Partners LP的合伙人兼高級投資組合經(jīng)理埃里克·納托爾12月21日對英國《金融郵報》表示，2023年油價將回到每桶100美元。分析師們表示，今年阻礙油價上漲的許多不利因素，包括全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇和幾個國家政府協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)布的戰(zhàn)略石油儲備（SPR）釋放，到2023年將不復(fù)存在。再加上對石油和天然氣的制裁，這應(yīng)該會推高油價。他還預(yù)測，由于石油和天然氣股票的高需求，2023年能源板塊的表現(xiàn)將繼續(xù)優(yōu)于其他市場板塊。

納托爾并不是唯一的油價看漲者。上周，美國銀行預(yù)測，在美聯(lián)儲溫和轉(zhuǎn)向以及全球成功重啟經(jīng)濟的背景下，布倫特原油價格可能很快突破每桶90美元。

美國銀行預(yù)測，布倫特原油價格(目前為每桶77.93美元)在2023年的平均價格將達(dá)到每桶100美元，這要歸因于疫情后重新開放后石油需求的復(fù)蘇，以及產(chǎn)能大國每天供應(yīng)量減少大約100萬桶。根據(jù)這家加拿大投資管理銀行的說法，歐佩克+可能會全面實施每天200萬桶原油的減產(chǎn)計劃，以提振油價。

這一預(yù)測是在油價穩(wěn)步下跌之際做出的，原因是人們擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟疲軟將抑制燃料需求。

美國銀行表示：“我們對2023年的全球石油需求和價格預(yù)測在很大程度上依賴于亞洲強勁的需求增長，因此亞洲重新開放的任何延遲都可能影響我們預(yù)期的價格軌跡。”

由于主要輸油管道重啟緩解了供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂，以及對全球經(jīng)濟衰退和原油需求減弱的持續(xù)擔(dān)憂，原油期貨價格幾乎回吐了今年以來的全部漲幅，錄得8個多月來最大單周跌幅。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

$100 Oil To Return In 2023

·     Portfolio manager Eric Nuttall sees oil returning to $100 per barrel in 2023.

·     The end of coordinated SPR releases, the gradual reopening of the global economy and sanctions on crude could lift oil prices in 2023. 

·     Bank of America predicted that Brent could quickly go past $90 per barrel on the back of a dovish pivot in the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners LP, has told the Financial Post that oil prices will return to $100 per barrel in 2023. According to the analysts, many of the headwinds that have cut short the oil price rally this year including the gradual reopening of the global economy and the coordinated SPR releases by several governments, will no longer be there in 2023. Coupled with sanctions on oil and gas, this should elevate oil prices. He has also predicted that the energy sector will continue to outperform other market sectors due to high demand in oil and gas stocks.

Nutall is not the only bull here.

Last week, the Bank of America predicted that Brent could quickly go past $90 per barrel on the back of a dovish pivot in the U.S. Federal Reserve and a “successful” economic reopening.

BofA has forecast that Brent prices--currently trading at $77.93--will average $100/bbl in 2023 thanks to oil demand recovery on a post-COVID reopening coupled with a drop in supplies of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd). According to the investment bank, OPEC+ is likely to fully implement a 2 million bpd output cut in a bid to boost oil prices.

The forecast has come at a time when oil prices have been steadily declining due to fears that a weakening global economy would curb fuel demand. 

“Our oil demand and price projections for 2023 rely heavily on robust Asia demand growth, so any Asia reopening delays could affect our expected price trajectory,” said the bank.

Crude oil futures have surrendered nearly all gains for the year, posting their largest weekly losses in more than eight months, as restarts for key pipelines eased supply concerns coupled with ongoing worries about a global recession and weaker crude demand.