本周油價(jià)小幅上漲，因?yàn)楣?yīng)的不確定性幫助止住了上周油價(jià)的下跌勢(shì)頭

基石管道關(guān)閉以及七國(guó)集團(tuán)價(jià)格上限將如何影響原油出口的不確定性是油價(jià)的主要看漲因素

上周，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退導(dǎo)致需求大幅下降的擔(dān)憂，推動(dòng)油價(jià)跌至去年12月以來(lái)的最低水平

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)12月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，受基石（Keystone）管道關(guān)閉和原油出口價(jià)格設(shè)定上限后果的不確定性推動(dòng)，本周原油交易價(jià)格開(kāi)始上漲。

在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油價(jià)格接近每桶76.50美元，西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)格接近每桶71.60美元，均比周五（12月9日）收盤(pán)價(jià)格上漲逾1%。上周，基準(zhǔn)油價(jià)跌至去年12月以來(lái)的最低水平。

過(guò)去幾周油價(jià)下跌的最大驅(qū)動(dòng)因素是對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂，這將對(duì)需求產(chǎn)生不利影響。這種擔(dān)憂也被認(rèn)為是油價(jià)上漲有限的原因，此前有其他利好消息。

即使是歐佩克+再次未能達(dá)到產(chǎn)量配額的消息，也未能引起原油交易商的強(qiáng)烈反應(yīng)。

Argus周五的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，11月份歐佩克+的原油日產(chǎn)量已降至3829萬(wàn)桶。這比歐佩克+更新后的配額每天低181萬(wàn)桶。

或許更令人擔(dān)憂(盡管并不令人驚訝)的是，歐佩克出現(xiàn)了原油產(chǎn)量下降，而非歐佩克成員國(guó)的原油產(chǎn)量在11月份出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)。哈薩克斯坦11月份原油日產(chǎn)量增加33萬(wàn)桶。

與此同時(shí)，TC能源公司在內(nèi)布拉斯加州檢測(cè)到泄漏后關(guān)閉了基石管道，并沒(méi)有給出重新啟動(dòng)這條重要輸油管道的時(shí)間表，從而加劇了對(duì)美國(guó)供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂。基石管道每天向美國(guó)運(yùn)送大約60萬(wàn)桶加拿大原油。

領(lǐng)先的外匯交易和信息公司安達(dá)公司高級(jí)市場(chǎng)分析師愛(ài)德華· 莫亞12月12日早些時(shí)候?qū)β吠干绫硎荆捎诨艿廊匀魂P(guān)閉以及人們擔(dān)心可能減少原油產(chǎn)量，油價(jià)將上漲。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下:

Supply Uncertainty Pushes Oil Prices Higher

·   Oil prices started the week with a slight gain as supply uncertainty helped to halt last week’s downward momentum.

·   The shutdown of the keystone pipeline and uncertainty regarding how the G7 price cap will influence exports are the main bullish factors for oil.

·   Last week. fear of significant demand destruction due to a global recession helped to push oil prices to the lowest level since December 2021.

Crude oil began trading this week with a gain, pushed higher by the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline and uncertainty around the consequences of the G7 price cap on oil exports.

Brent crude was trading close to $76.50 per barrel at the time of writing, with West Texas Intermediate at close to $71.60 per barrel, both up by more than 1 percent from Friday’s close. Last week, the benchmarks fell to the lowest since December last year.

The biggest driver for the last few weekly declines has been fear of a global recession, which would affect demand adversely. This fear has also been noted as reason for the limited gains oil has made following otherwise bullish news.

Even the news that OPEC+ had once again missed its production quota, and by quite a significant margin, failed to elicit a strong response from oil traders.

A survey from Argus showed on Friday that oil production in OPEC+ had fallen to 38.29 million barrels daily in November. This was 1.81 million bpd below the group’s updated, lower, quota.

What’s perhaps more worrying, although not surprising, is that it was OPEC that accounted for the decline while non-OPEC members of the wider pact saw their output increase in November. Kazakhstan’s output rose by 330,000 bpd .

Meanwhile, TC Energy shut down the Keystone pipeline after a leak was detected in Nebraska and did not give a timeline for the restart of the oil transport channel, fueling concern about supply in the United States. Keystone carries some 600,000 bpd of Canadian crude to the United States.

"Oil prices are higher as the Keystone pipeline remains shut, and on concerns that it could reduce output," Oanda senior market analyst Edward Moya told Reuters earlier today.