據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年3月16日?qǐng)?bào)道，油價(jià)下跌的喘息可能是短暫的。這是挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）高級(jí)石油市場(chǎng)分析師路易絲·迪克森這樣說(shuō)的。他說(shuō)，油價(jià)下跌表明市場(chǎng)還沒(méi)有充分意識(shí)到失去大國(guó)石油供應(yīng)對(duì)全球供應(yīng)的潛在影響。 

迪克森在3月15日晚些時(shí)候發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份聲明中表示：“油價(jià)從每桶130美元調(diào)整……反映了來(lái)自市場(chǎng)的一系列信號(hào)。”

迪克森說(shuō)，“石油需求風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是真實(shí)存在的。 據(jù)估計(jì)，嚴(yán)厲封鎖措施可能會(huì)使每天50萬(wàn)桶石油消費(fèi)面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而能源價(jià)格上漲導(dǎo)致的燃料短缺將進(jìn)一步加劇這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”

迪克森接著說(shuō)：“交易正變得越來(lái)越不穩(wěn)定，對(duì)算法交易系統(tǒng)的依賴(lài)可以將一個(gè)微小信號(hào)轉(zhuǎn)化為一種全面的級(jí)連式價(jià)格影響，這種情況在戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)迷霧和金融市場(chǎng)不確定性中越來(lái)越頻繁地發(fā)生。”

迪克森稱(chēng)，“如果歐洲不承諾削減每天進(jìn)口的近400萬(wàn)桶原油，供應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已暫時(shí)緩解。這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)曾推動(dòng)油價(jià)升至每桶130美元。”

“美國(guó)通貨膨脹也是人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，3月16日美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議上預(yù)期的加息決定正在緩慢地推動(dòng)美元走強(qiáng)，并給油價(jià)帶來(lái)下行壓力。”

迪克森接著說(shuō)：“當(dāng)前已經(jīng)顯示出航空燃料需求的低迷，自2月中旬以來(lái)，航空燃料需求出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重下降的趨勢(shì)。”

市場(chǎng)定位和極端波動(dòng) 

在3月15日發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的另一份報(bào)告中，渣打銀行的分析師表示，他們認(rèn)為與過(guò)去一周的基本面變化相比，油價(jià)回調(diào)幅度的降低更多地說(shuō)明了市場(chǎng)定位和極端波動(dòng)的影響。 

分析師在報(bào)告中表示：“金融和大宗商品市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性的增加，導(dǎo)致交易商持有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平大幅上升，并產(chǎn)生了結(jié)清部分頭寸以降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)動(dòng)機(jī)。”

“由于最近幾周石油交易商大多在直接倉(cāng)位和價(jià)差方面都持有高度看多的頭寸，在高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境下的優(yōu)化主要涉及及時(shí)平倉(cāng)，”分析師補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)。  

“由于目前投機(jī)性空頭非常少，自然買(mǎi)家就很少，下行空間已經(jīng)打開(kāi)。 盡管所涉及的價(jià)格區(qū)間一直很極端，但近期的價(jià)格動(dòng)態(tài)具有教科書(shū)式投機(jī)過(guò)度的所有特征，然后進(jìn)行必要的調(diào)整，以重新設(shè)定極端頭寸，”分析師們繼續(xù)說(shuō)。  

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中指出，具有諷刺意味的是，石油交易商普遍認(rèn)為油價(jià)只會(huì)上漲，這導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)決定短期內(nèi)油價(jià)只會(huì)下跌。  

分析師表示：“盡管持倉(cāng)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格下跌，但我們認(rèn)為關(guān)鍵基本面因素本周基本沒(méi)有變化，而且還受到異常高的不確定性的影響。” 

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Cheaper Oil May Be Short Lived

The reprieve of cheaper oil may be short lived.

That’s according to Rystad Energy’s senior oil market analyst Louise Dickson, who said falling prices indicate the market has not fully realized the potential impact of lost Russian barrels on global supply.

“The oil price correction from $130 per barrel … reflects a number of signals from the market,” Dickson said in a statement sent to Rigzone late Tuesday.

“The oil demand risk is real. It is estimated that a severe lockdown in big country could put 0.5 million barrels per day of oil consumption at risk, which would be further compounded by fuel shortages due to inflated energy prices,” Dickson added.

“Trading is getting increasingly volatile and the dependence on algorithmic trading systems can turn a micro signal into a sweeping cascade price impact, an occurrence that is happening with increased frequency amid the fog of war and financial market uncertainty,” Dickson went on to say.

“Without Europe pledging to cut back on its nearly four million barrels per day of crude imports, the supply risk that shot oil prices up towards $130 per barrel has been temporarily mollified,” Dickson said. 

“U.S. inflation is also in the spotlight, and the expected decision at … [today’s] Fed meeting to raise interest rates has been slowly strengthening the U.S. dollar and putting downward pressure on oil prices,” Dickson added.

“It is already showing jet fuel demand distress as they have seen severe downward trends in aviation since the middle of February, ” Dickson continued.

Market Positioning and Extreme Volatility

In a separate report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, analysts at Standard Chartered said they think the correction lower in prices tells them more about market positioning and the effect of extreme volatility than it does about changes in fundamentals over the past week.

“The increase in volatility across financial and commodity markets led to a sharp rise in the level of risk held by traders and an associated incentive to close out some positions to reduce risk,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Because oil traders have mostly been positioned with a highly bullish bias in terms of both outright positions and spreads in recent weeks, optimization in a higher-risk environment has mostly involved closing out prompt longs,” the analysts added.

“With speculative shorts being very thin on the ground currently, there have been few natural buyers and the downside has opened up. While the price ranges involved have been extreme, recent price dynamics bear all the hallmarks of a textbook speculative overshoot followed by the correction necessary to reset extreme positioning,” the analysts continued.

In the report, the analysts noted that the irony of the situation is that the dominance among oil traders of the belief that prices could only move higher has led to a position from which market dynamics dictated that in the short-term prices could only go lower.

“Despite the positioning-led price fall, we think the key fundamentals are largely unchanged week on week and are also subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty,” the analysts said.