據美國油價網報道，歐佩克2月10日表示，更強勁的經濟增長和對疫情限制的放松，使全球石油需求的短期前景光明，具有上行潛力，并保持其對今年石油消費將超過疫情前水平的預測。

在其備受關注的2月份月度石油市場報告(MOMR)中，歐佩克將今年的年度石油需求預估小幅上調1萬桶，至每日1.008億桶，高于1月報告中預估的每日1.0079億桶。  

歐佩克對今年第三季度和第四季度的全球石油日需求預估分別上調了3萬桶和2萬桶。 歐佩克預計，今年第三季度全球石油日需求平均為1.0132億桶，第四季度為1.0292億桶。 

今年全球整個年度石油日需求增幅維持在420萬桶不變。 歐佩克表示，今年全球平均石油日需求預計為1.008億桶，將超過2019年的水平。

在1月份的報告中，歐佩克也保持其對今年全球石油需求增長的預期不變，并表示，奧米克戎毒株對全球石油需求的影響比一個月前的預期要弱，盡管貨幣緊縮政策，但石油市場將在今年全年得到良好的支持。  

在2月份的報告中，歐佩克似乎更加樂觀，盡管它保持全球石油需求增長預測不變。歐佩克在報告中表示：“由于全球多數經濟體預計將增長強勁，全球石油需求的近期前景肯定是光明的。”

歐佩克表示，疫情防控、供應鏈中斷、通貨膨脹和勞動力短缺可能導致全球經濟增長放緩，這將繼續是今年全球經濟面臨的主要挑戰。 

“盡管如此，基于持續觀察到的強勁經濟復蘇，在財政刺激的支持下，GDP已經達到疫情前的水平，以及全球貿易規模達到歷史最高水平，預測的上行潛力普遍存在。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

OPEC Sees Bright Prospects For Global Oil Demand This Year

Stronger economic growth and the easing of COVID restrictions make the near-term prospects for global oil demand bright, with an upside potential, OPEC said on Thursday, keeping its forecast that consumption will exceed pre-pandemic levels in 2022.

In its closely-watched Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the organization revised up slightly, by 10,000 bpd, its annual oil demand estimate for 2022 to 100.8 million bpd, up from 100.79 million bpd in last month’s report.

Estimates for the third and fourth quarter of 2022 were revised up by 30,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd, respectively. OPEC sees global oil demand averaging 101.32 million bpd in Q3 2022, and 102.92 million bpd in Q4.

Overall annual demand growth this year was left unchanged at 4.2 million bpd. This year’s expected global demand average of 100.8 million bpd will exceed the 2019 level, OPEC said.

In last month’s report, OPEC also left its demand growth estimate for 2022 unchanged, and said that the effect of Omicron on oil demand had been weaker than expected a month earlier, and the oil market was set to be well-supported throughout 2022 despite monetary tightening policies.

In this month’s report, OPEC appears even more optimistic, although it left the demand growth forecast unchanged.

“As most world economies are expected to grow stronger, the near-term prospects for world oil demand are certainly on the bright side,” the cartel said in the report.

The COVID containment, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and labor shortages that could slow economic growth will continue to be the main challenges to the global economy this year, OPEC said.

“Nevertheless, upside potential to the forecast prevails, based on an ongoing observed strong economic recovery with the GDP already reaching pre-pandemic levels, supported by fiscal stimulus, and global trade levels reaching an all-time high in volume terms. Moreover, mobility is expected to gain further momentum, particularly with regard to the travel and tourism sector,” the organization added.

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