據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，路透社援引2月2日舉行的歐佩克聯(lián)合技術(shù)委員會(huì)的新聞稿報(bào)道說，歐佩克+仍預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)過剩，但已將過剩量上調(diào)10萬桶/天至130萬桶/天。 

路透社援引未具名消息人士的話報(bào)道說，歐佩克2月2日會(huì)議本身不太可能產(chǎn)生任何沖擊：歐佩克計(jì)劃堅(jiān)持每月總產(chǎn)量日增40萬桶的安排，直到該組織產(chǎn)量恢復(fù)到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。

然而，這對(duì)歐佩克+的許多成員國(guó)來說可能很困難，數(shù)月來，它們一直在努力實(shí)現(xiàn)根據(jù)協(xié)議分配給它們的配額。該協(xié)議標(biāo)志著歐佩克及其以俄羅斯為首的合作伙伴開始逆轉(zhuǎn)有史以來最大的石油減產(chǎn)。 為應(yīng)對(duì)疫情以及由此造成的石油需求減少，歐佩克+同意每日減少近800萬桶的石油供應(yīng)。

減產(chǎn)，再加上維護(hù)投資的減少和石油勘探活動(dòng)的減少，大大減少了歐佩克+的備用產(chǎn)能，業(yè)內(nèi)人士警告稱，這將使全球備用產(chǎn)能降至20多年來的最低水平。

根據(jù)路透社來自歐佩克內(nèi)部不愿透露姓名的消息人士的話，即使是高油價(jià)似乎也未能說服歐佩克+增加產(chǎn)量。其中一位消息人士表示，“更快增產(chǎn)的問題沒有出現(xiàn)，我懷疑增產(chǎn)問題會(huì)不會(huì)出現(xiàn)。” 

這可能是因?yàn)闅W佩克+喜歡當(dāng)前的油價(jià)，也可能是因?yàn)闅W佩克+連續(xù)幾個(gè)月未能實(shí)現(xiàn)月度配額背后的備用產(chǎn)能問題。

PVM的Tamas Varga日前對(duì)路透社表示：“石油市場(chǎng)目前毫無保留地看漲。”“國(guó)際緊張局勢(shì)、供應(yīng)緊張的感覺和寒冷的冬季是這種強(qiáng)勁看漲背后的最重要因素。”

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Still Expects Oil Surplus This Year

OPEC+ still expects the global oil market to be in a surplus this year, but has revised the overhang by 100,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd, Reuters reported citing the group's Joint Technical Committee, which met yesterday ahead of today's monthly meeting of OPEC+.

The meeting itself is unlikely to produce any shocks: according to unnamed sources cited by Reuters, the cartel planned to stick to its arrangement of adding 400,000 bpd in collective output to its monthly total until national production levels returned to pre-pandemic levels.

This, however, may be tough for many members of the group, which have been struggling for months to meet the quotas assigned to them under the agreement that marked the beginning of a reversal in the deepest oil production cuts ever made by OPEC and its Russia-led partners. In response to the pandemic and the destruction of oil demand it caused, the group agreed to take almost 8 million bpd off the market.

The production cuts, combined with lower investments in maintenance and lower oil exploration, reduced OPEC+'s spare capacity substantially, prompting warnings that this would bring down global spare oil capacity to the lowest in more than two decades.

Even high prices seem to have not managed to convince OPEC+ to pump more, based on information from Reuters' unnamed sources from inside the cartel, with one of them saying, "The issue (of speedier increases) did not come up and I doubt it will."

This could be because OPEC+ likes prices where they are, or it could be because of the spare capacity problem that has been behind the consistent failure of the group to deliver on its monthly quotas for several months in a row.

"The oil market is currently unreservedly bullish," Tamas Varga from PVM told Reuters this week. "It is international tension, the perception of tight supply and the cold winter that are the most important factors behind the strength."

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