據(jù)今日油價(jià)7月22日?qǐng)?bào)道，在經(jīng)歷了一段時(shí)間的相對(duì)穩(wěn)定后，美國(guó)原油基準(zhǔn)WTI在每桶70美元上方交易了一個(gè)多月，交易員們現(xiàn)在正準(zhǔn)備迎接油價(jià)在夏季剩余時(shí)間的狂飆。
《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》收集的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，原油期權(quán)市場(chǎng)的交易員預(yù)計(jì)，未來(lái)幾周油價(jià)波動(dòng)性將大幅上升，他們正在加大對(duì)沖力度，以防油價(jià)進(jìn)一步下跌。越來(lái)越謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度表明，市場(chǎng)參與者正在權(quán)衡未來(lái)幾個(gè)月歐佩克+增加石油供應(yīng)的前景，以及在許多國(guó)家新冠肺炎病例激增之際，對(duì)全球石油需求復(fù)蘇可能停滯的擔(dān)憂。
市場(chǎng)參與者已經(jīng)意識(shí)到，今年夏天石油需求的反彈不會(huì)將油價(jià)推高至每桶100美元，各處新冠肺炎病例的爆發(fā)將不可避免地打擊市場(chǎng)人氣。
大宗商品對(duì)沖基金Massar Capital Management的首席投資官M(fèi)arwan Younes對(duì)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》表示："市場(chǎng)將比人們預(yù)期的動(dòng)蕩得多。"
本周一開(kāi)始，石油市場(chǎng)確實(shí)動(dòng)蕩不安。
歐佩克+最終在周日宣布了一項(xiàng)如何緩解減產(chǎn)的協(xié)議。但市場(chǎng)周一聚焦于對(duì)需求復(fù)蘇的擔(dān)憂，因Delta病毒感染激增，股市普遍拋售，且交易方式普遍在規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，避險(xiǎn)情緒打擊了油價(jià)，提振了美元。周一，美元走強(qiáng)進(jìn)一步打壓了油價(jià)。
因此，WTI原油價(jià)格下跌了7%，這是今年以來(lái)的最大單日跌幅，也是自2020年9月以來(lái)的最大單日跌幅。市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始擔(dān)心，不斷上升的Delta病毒感染對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和石油需求復(fù)蘇意味著什么。如果一些國(guó)家，特別是接種率普遍較低的亞洲國(guó)家，再次對(duì)人口流動(dòng)施加限制，這將減少燃料需求。
因此，石油市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性再度飆升，根據(jù)華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)援引QuikStrike的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，以期權(quán)合約價(jià)格為基礎(chǔ)的下個(gè)月隱含波動(dòng)率指標(biāo)周一跳升至41.2%。
當(dāng)然，很少有市場(chǎng)參與者預(yù)計(jì)，2020年4月的波動(dòng)會(huì)重演，當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)油價(jià)一天內(nèi)暴跌至負(fù)值。為了解決這個(gè)問(wèn)題，歐佩克+通過(guò)達(dá)成一項(xiàng)協(xié)議來(lái)解決這一問(wèn)題，盡管它花了兩周時(shí)間向市場(chǎng)保證不會(huì)很快出現(xiàn)新的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)。
不過(guò)，華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)引述QuikStrike數(shù)據(jù)顯示，交易商正更多地通過(guò)所謂的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)逆轉(zhuǎn)策略對(duì)沖油價(jià)下滑，以保護(hù)看漲期權(quán)。
市場(chǎng)和大多數(shù)分析人士普遍認(rèn)為，歐佩克+協(xié)議對(duì)油價(jià)具有建設(shè)性意義，因?yàn)樗酥匦卤l(fā)價(jià)格戰(zhàn)的可能性，即使這是一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)的協(xié)議。但市場(chǎng)參與者繼續(xù)關(guān)注夏季淡季的利空消息，由于流動(dòng)性降低，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性加大。
歐佩克+協(xié)議為市場(chǎng)提供了更多的確定性，因此在理論上應(yīng)該會(huì)減少波動(dòng)性。不過(guò)，本周宏觀和需求方面的擔(dān)憂明顯蓋過(guò)了供應(yīng)方面的進(jìn)站。
許多國(guó)家，包括美國(guó)和英國(guó)等疫苗接種率高的國(guó)家的Delta病毒感染病例激增，以及周一在全球市場(chǎng)上引發(fā)的恐慌，突顯出交易員目前在石油上押注所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。
許多分析師認(rèn)為，油價(jià)將回升至每桶70美元上方，高盛(Goldman Sachs)甚至預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將升至每桶80美元，而石油期權(quán)交易員已做好準(zhǔn)備，迎接未來(lái)更大的需求波動(dòng)和劇烈的價(jià)格波動(dòng)。
王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)
原文如下：
Traders Brace For Major Oil Market Volatility This Summer
After a period of relative stability in the oil market where U.S. crude benchmark WTI was trading above $70 a barrel for more than a month, traders are now bracing for a wild ride for the rest of the summer.
Traders in the crude oil options market expect volatility to spike in the coming weeks and are hedging more against further price declines, data compiled by The Wall Street Journal showed. The increased caution suggests that market participants are weighing the prospect of rising oil supply from OPEC+ in the coming months against concerns about potential stalling of the global oil demand recovery amid the spike in COVID cases in many countries.
Market participants have come to realize that the rebound in oil demand this summer will not shoot oil prices up to $100 a barrel and that flare-ups in virus cases here and there would inevitably hit market sentiment.
“It’s going to be a lot more turbulent than people expected,” Marwan Younes, chief investment officer at commodity-focused hedge fund Massar Capital Management, told the Journal.
It was indeed turbulent at the start of this week in the oil market.
OPEC+ finally announced on Sunday a deal on how it would ease the production cuts. But the market focused on Monday on fears of demand recovery amid surging Delta variant infections in a broader sell-off in equity markets and a generally risk-averse trading approach. Risk aversion hit oil and lifted the U.S. dollar. The stronger dollar additionally weighed on oil prices on Monday.
As a result, WTI Crude prices plunged by 7 percent, the biggest one-day loss so far this year and the largest such loss since September 2020. The market started to fret about what the rising Delta variant infections would mean for economies and the oil demand recovery. If countries, especially those in Asia where vaccination rates are generally lower, were to impose restrictions on mobility again, this would reduce fuel demand.
So, volatility in the oil market spiked again, and a measure of implied volatility over the next month based on option contract prices jumped to 41.2 percent on Monday, according to data from QuikStrike cited by the Journal.
Sure, few market participants expect a repeat of the April 2020 volatility, when U.S. oil prices turned negative for a day. OPEC+ took care of that by sealing a deal—even if it took it two weeks—to reassure the market that there would not be a new price war coming soon.
Nevertheless, traders are hedging more against oil price slides via the so-called risk reversal strategy to protect their bullish call options with bearish put options, the QuikStrike data cited by the WSJ showed.
The market and most analysts generally believe that the OPEC+ agreement is constructive for oil prices as it removes the possibility—even if it was a remote one—of a renewed price war. But participants continue to be tuned to bearish news in the summer lull period, which, with lower liquidity, leads to higher volatility in markets.
The OPEC+ agreement “has provided more certainty for the market, and so in theory should reduce volatility. However, clearly this week, macro and demand concerns have overshadowed supply developments,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said early on Wednesday.
The Delta variant surge in many countries—including in those with high vaccination rates such as the United States and the UK—and the jitters it caused on all global markets on Monday highlights the challenges traders face in betting on oil now.
Many analysts believe oil prices are set to return to above $70, with Goldman Sachs even expecting $80 oil, but oil option traders are getting ready for more volatility and wild price swings ahead.
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