據(jù)能源世界網(wǎng)5月12日倫敦報(bào)道， 國(guó)際能源署(IEA)周三表示，石油需求已經(jīng)超過(guò)供應(yīng)，疫苗接種提振全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，石油缺口預(yù)計(jì)仍將擴(kuò)大。

　　IEA在其月度報(bào)告中援引歐佩克+成員國(guó)增加石油供應(yīng)的話(huà)稱(chēng),今年剩余時(shí)間的預(yù)期供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)不及我們對(duì)第二季度之后需求大幅增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)。

　　IEA表示，石油輸出國(guó)組織(OPEC)及包括俄羅斯在內(nèi)的盟國(guó)被稱(chēng)作歐佩克+的組織，第二季石油日產(chǎn)量較需求低約15萬(wàn)桶/天。

　　總部位于巴黎的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)表示，預(yù)計(jì)到年底，這一缺口將擴(kuò)大至250萬(wàn)桶/日。

　　自2017年以來(lái)，歐佩克+產(chǎn)油國(guó)一直在限制產(chǎn)量，但自去年實(shí)施創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的減產(chǎn)以來(lái)，已經(jīng)放松了產(chǎn)量，從本月起，各方同意進(jìn)一步放松產(chǎn)量。

　　IEA表示，供需缺口擴(kuò)大，為OPEC+進(jìn)一步放松減產(chǎn)或更大幅度削減庫(kù)存鋪平了道路，并指出原油庫(kù)存在疫情期間飆升后，現(xiàn)已回落至近五年平均水平。在支撐油價(jià)的同時(shí)，將庫(kù)存降至5年平均水平是歐佩克+減產(chǎn)的目標(biāo)之一。

　　OPEC+以外地區(qū)的供應(yīng)恢復(fù)比IEA預(yù)期的要慢，因新冠疫情推遲了巴西和墨西哥灣的項(xiàng)目，并阻礙了加拿大的維護(hù)工作。雖然巴西、泰國(guó)甚至印度（全球第三大消費(fèi)國(guó)感染病例破紀(jì)錄）的新一波感染并不足以扭轉(zhuǎn)這一趨勢(shì)，但可能繼續(xù)影響市場(chǎng)。印度的新冠疫情危機(jī)提醒人們，石油需求前景充滿(mǎn)不確定性。在疫情得到控制之前，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)可能會(huì)持續(xù)。

　　郝芬 譯自 能源世界網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　IEA sees oil demand recovery outpacing growth in supply

　　Oil demand is already outstripping supply and the shortfall is expected to widen as vaccinations against COVID-19 bolster the global economy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

　　"The anticipated supply growth through the rest of this year comes nowhere close to matching our forecast for significantly stronger demand beyond the second quarter," the IEA said in its monthly report, citing increased pumping from OPEC+ countries.

　　Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, the so-called OPEC+ group of producers, lagged demand by around by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, IEA said.

　　That shortfall is expected to widen to a 2.5 million bpd by year's end, the Paris-based watchdog said.

　　OPEC+ producers have been curbing output since 2017 but have eased since imposing record high cuts last year, with more easing agreed from this month.

　　"The widening supply and demand gap paves the way for a further easing of OPEC+ supply cuts or even sharper stock draws," the IEA said, noting that storage of oil had ebbed to nearly the five-year-average after soaring amid the pandemic.

　　Getting inventories back down to the five-year average was, along with supporting prices, one of the aims of the OPEC+ cuts to begin with.

　　Supply recovery outside OPEC+ was recovering more slowly than the IEA expected as the virus delayed projects in Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico and hampered maintenance in Canada.

　　While new waves of infections in Brazil and Thailand and even India - the world's third-largest consumer suffering record-breaking cases - were not enough to derail the trend but could continue to affect the market, it added.

　　"India's COVID crisis is a reminder that the outlook for oil demand is mired in uncertainty. Until the pandemic is brought under control, market volatility is likely to persist."

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