據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月13日消息，西方石油公司首席執(zhí)行官Vicki Hollub表示，二疊紀(jì)盆地的石油產(chǎn)量尚未達(dá)到峰值。

這位高管認(rèn)為，二疊紀(jì)盆地石油產(chǎn)量的增長(zhǎng)甚至可以抵消美國(guó)其他頁巖盆地產(chǎn)量的下降。

根據(jù)美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)的數(shù)據(jù)，二疊紀(jì)盆地本月的原油產(chǎn)量將從每天559.6萬桶增加至562.2萬桶，頁巖區(qū)塊的總產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)為921.4萬桶/天。

然而，正如路透社所指出的那樣，盡管二疊紀(jì)盆地3月至4月的月度產(chǎn)量變化將使總產(chǎn)量達(dá)到歷史新高，但這也將是自去年12月以來最小的月度增長(zhǎng)。換句話說，產(chǎn)出可能在增長(zhǎng)，但增長(zhǎng)速度在放慢。

然而，如果價(jià)格繼續(xù)攀升，這種情況可能會(huì)改變。據(jù)Hollub的同行先鋒能源公司高管Scott Sheffield表示，油價(jià)很可能會(huì)大幅攀升。他在本周早些時(shí)候也曾說，如果油價(jià)突破每桶90美元，那么今年晚些時(shí)候就可能達(dá)到每桶100美元，然后在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)保持在90至100美元區(qū)間。

Sheffield認(rèn)為，未來價(jià)格上漲的主要原因是供應(yīng)緊張。他在上個(gè)月的先鋒能源公司財(cái)報(bào)電話會(huì)議上首次預(yù)測(cè)了這些價(jià)格水平，并在歐佩克+表示將進(jìn)一步削減其116萬桶的日產(chǎn)量后，于本周重申了這一預(yù)測(cè)。

與此同時(shí)，頁巖地區(qū)的石油產(chǎn)量雖然可能增長(zhǎng)緩慢，但從天然氣價(jià)格走勢(shì)可以看出，總產(chǎn)量正在上升。據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，本月早些時(shí)候，天然氣價(jià)格跌至30個(gè)月來的最低水平，跌破2美元/百萬英熱單位。

報(bào)告稱，天然氣價(jià)格暴跌的原因在于頁巖油產(chǎn)量的增加，導(dǎo)致伴生氣產(chǎn)量激增。

ClearView Energy董事總經(jīng)理Jacques Rousseau向路透社表示，“美國(guó)大約三分之一的天然氣產(chǎn)量來自油井生產(chǎn)的伴生氣。鑒于目前的油價(jià)，產(chǎn)量不太可能下降”。

何勝男 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng) 

原文如下： 

Permian Oil Production Hasn’t Peaked Yet 

The Permian basin has not yet seen peak oil production, according to Occidental’s chief executive Vicki Hollub. 

The executive believes that growth in the play’s production rates will even offset declines in other shale basins across the United States. 

According to the Energy Information Administration, the Permian will produce 5.622 million bpd of crude oil this month, up from 5.596 million bpd. Total production from the shale patch is seen at 9.214 million bpd. 

However, as Reuters noted, although the Permian’s monthly output change from March to April would bring total production to a record high, it would also be the smallest monthly increase since December. In other words, output may be growing, but the growth is slow. 

This could change, however, if prices climb higher. According to Hollub’s fellow shale major executive Scott Sheffield, prices may well climb higher—significantly. If oil breaks $90 per barrel it could hit $100 later this year, Sheffield said earlier this week, and then stay in the range of $90-$100 for some time. 

The main reason for the higher prices that Sheffield sees ahead is tight supply. He first forecast these price levels last month during Pioneer’s earnings call and reiterated it this week, after OPEC+ said it would cut an additional 1.16 million bpd from its combined output. 

Meanwhile, oil output from the shale patch may be slow on the rise but it is rising, as suggested by natural gas price movements. Earlier this month, gas prices plunged to the lowest in 30 months, according to Reuters, dipping below $2 per mmBtu. 

The reason for the plunge, according to the report, was rising shale oil production, which led to a surge in associated gas production. 

"about a third of U.S. gas production is associated gas - produced from oil wells. This production is unlikely to decline given current oil prices," ClearView Energy managing director Jacques Rousseau told Reuters.