據鉆機地帶3月20日報道，對石油前景最樂觀的銀行之一高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)小幅下調了對石油的預測，原因是對銀行業和經濟衰退可能性的擔憂超過了亞洲需求激增的影響。

該行分析師目前預計，布倫特原油在未來12個月將達到每桶94美元，2024年下半年將達到每桶97美元，此前為每桶100美元。

該行在3月18日的一份報告中表示：“盡管亞洲需求旺盛，但由于銀行業壓力、對經濟衰退的擔憂以及投資者外流，油價仍大幅下跌。”“從歷史上看，在這樣的重大事件之后，倉位和價格只能逐漸恢復，尤其是長期價格。”

本周全球市場動蕩不安，瑞士信貸集團(Credit Suisse Group AG)的動蕩引發了整個市場的恐慌。油價已跌至15個月低點，布倫特原油本周下跌12%，至每桶73美元以下。

隨著油價下跌，該銀行現在預計歐佩克產油國只會在2024年第三季度增加產量，而高盛在價格暴跌前估計的是2023年下半年。

壽琳玲 編譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Oil Prices Won't Hit $100 This Year

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the most bullish banks on its outlook for oil, has nudged its forecasts down as worries over the banking sector and the potential for recession outweigh a surge in demand from Asia.

The bank’s analysts now see Brent reaching $94 a barrel for the 12 months ahead, and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, versus $100 a barrel previously.

“Oil prices have plunged despite the Asian demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” the bank said in a March 18 note. “Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices.” 

Global markets have been roiled this week as turmoil at Credit Suisse Group AG triggered panic across markets. Oil has slumped to a 15-month low, with Brent dropping 12% this week to below $73 a barrel. 

Following the decline in prices, the bank now expects OPEC producers to only increase output in the third quarter of 2024, versus in the second half of 2023 which Goldman had estimated before the price rout.