據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)7月29日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于市場(chǎng)普遍忽略了對(duì)技術(shù)性衰退的擔(dān)憂(yōu)對(duì)原油需求的影響，周五原油價(jià)格飆升。

美國(guó)東部時(shí)間晚上11:40，WTI原油交易價(jià)格接近100美元，至每桶99.94美元，當(dāng)日上漲3.52美元（+3.65%）。布倫特原油交易價(jià)格高于每桶110美元至110.20美元，當(dāng)日上漲3.06美元（+2.86%）。

市場(chǎng)似乎無(wú)法忽視目前存在的供應(yīng)緊張局面。周五另一個(gè)看漲原油的因素是美國(guó)能源情報(bào)署公布的5月美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)，該數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)5月原油產(chǎn)量實(shí)際上是下降而非上升，與EIA在其《短期能源展望》中的最新估計(jì)相反。

OPEC+下周會(huì)議結(jié)束時(shí)可能不會(huì)有大幅增產(chǎn)目標(biāo)的消息，也在很大程度上提振了油價(jià)。周四，五名OPEC+消息人士暗示，OPEC+可能會(huì)將9月產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)維持在8月水平不變。兩名歐佩克+消息人士表示，該組織可能會(huì)討論小幅增產(chǎn)。然而，市場(chǎng)意識(shí)到，由于長(zhǎng)期的產(chǎn)量不足，與該組織當(dāng)前的目標(biāo)相比，即使提高產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)也不太可能導(dǎo)致歐佩克+的實(shí)際增產(chǎn)。

WTI價(jià)格不僅在當(dāng)天上漲，而且在一周內(nèi)都上漲。然而，過(guò)去一個(gè)月價(jià)格有所下降。上個(gè)月這個(gè)時(shí)候，WTI的交易價(jià)格接近每桶110美元。今年到目前為止，油價(jià)每桶上漲了20美元以上。

Energy Aspects研究主管Amrita Sen周五告訴彭博社，盡管原油價(jià)格高企且經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但全球石油需求似乎并未下降。

有跡象表明，原油需求尚未從疫情期間完全恢復(fù)，庫(kù)存緊張，即使全球有數(shù)百萬(wàn)桶原油離開(kāi)戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備。當(dāng)這些原油在10月份停止從戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備庫(kù)流出時(shí)，市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)變得更加緊張。

黎泱 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Soar As Market Shrugs Off Recession Fears

The price of crude oil skyrocketed on Friday as the market generally ignored the crude oil demand implications from worries about the technical recession.

At 11:40 p.m., ET, WTI crude was trading near $100 at $99.94 per barrel, an increase of $3.52 (+3.65%) on the day. Brent crude was trading above $110 per barrel at $110.20, up $3.06 (+2.86%) on the day.

The market cannot seem to brush off the tight supply situation that currently exists. Another bullish factor for crude oil on Friday was the Energy Information Administration’s publication of its numbers for U.S. crude oil production for May, which showed that U.S. crude oil production actually fell in May instead of rose, contrary to the EIA’s latest estimates from its Short Term Energy Outlook.

The news that OPEC+’s meeting next week would likely end with no significant production target increase also bolstered prices to a significant degree. On Thursday, five OPEC+ sources suggested that OPEC+ was likely to keep its production targets for September steady with August levels. Two OPEC+ sources said that the group could discuss a small output hike. The market is aware, however, that even a hike in production targets is unlikely to result in an actual OPEC+ production boost due to chronic underproduction compared to the group’s current targets.

WTI prices are not only up on the day but also up on the week. Prices have come down over the past month, however. WTI traded at nearly $110 per barrel this time last month. Prices are up more than $20 per barrel so far this year.

Despite the high price of crude oil and the recession, global oil demand doesn’t seem to be declining, Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg on Friday.

With indications that crude demand hasn’t yet fully recovered from its Covid days, inventories are tight, even with millions of barrels of crude oil leaving Strategic Petroleum Reserves around the globe. When this flow of crude stops flowing from the SPR in October, the market could get even tighter.