據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年6月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，美國(guó)銀行全球研究（BofA Global Research）在本周發(fā)給美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站的一份新報(bào)告中指出，油價(jià)仍有可能達(dá)到每桶150美元。

在這份報(bào)告中，美銀全球研究指出，預(yù)計(jì)布倫特原油在今年和2023年的平均價(jià)格將為每桶102美元，并強(qiáng)調(diào)，如果歐洲制裁迫使大國(guó)石油日產(chǎn)量低于900萬(wàn)桶，布倫特原油價(jià)格可能會(huì)飆升至每桶150美元。

美銀全球研究在報(bào)告中指出：“然而，由于遠(yuǎn)期油價(jià)一直牢牢地固定在每桶60至80美元的長(zhǎng)期油價(jià)區(qū)間內(nèi)，市場(chǎng)似乎并不認(rèn)為供應(yīng)危機(jī)會(huì)持續(xù)10年。”

“因此，延長(zhǎng)對(duì)能源的制裁可能會(huì)作為價(jià)格底部，即使近期現(xiàn)貨油價(jià)下跌風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加大。 即使全球陷入衰退，我們估計(jì)2023年布倫特原油的平均價(jià)格可能會(huì)超過(guò)每桶75美元。”美銀全球研究補(bǔ)充道。

在這份報(bào)告中，美銀全球研究指出，它仍假定不會(huì)出現(xiàn)衰退，但同時(shí)補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)受到能源產(chǎn)量有限的制約，燃料價(jià)格正在上漲，各國(guó)央行正在加息，以減緩整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。

美銀全球研究在報(bào)告中稱(chēng)：“從食品、能源到服務(wù)等領(lǐng)域的通脹壓力不斷上升，再加上利率快速上調(diào)，表明石油需求在明年之前很難完全恢復(fù)到疫情暴發(fā)前的水平。”  

美銀全球研究補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)：“今天大規(guī)模煉油廠瓶頸背后的地緣政治沖突，正在為美國(guó)巨大的能源（SPR釋放、出口限制）、美國(guó)對(duì)外（訪問(wèn)沙特）和美國(guó)貨幣（加息75個(gè)基點(diǎn)）政策回應(yīng)鋪平道路。” 

“石油需求的破壞將如何收?qǐng)觯?鑒于美元的強(qiáng)勢(shì)，印度、土耳其、南非、日本、德國(guó)或西班牙等大型能源進(jìn)口國(guó)面臨需求萎縮的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。”美銀全球研究在報(bào)告中繼續(xù)說(shuō)道。

美銀全球研究在報(bào)告中稱(chēng)，如果大國(guó)石油日供應(yīng)量不降至1000萬(wàn)桶以下，2023年全球石油日需求可能增加170萬(wàn)桶。根據(jù)歐佩克網(wǎng)站6月2日發(fā)布的最新一次歐佩克+會(huì)議聲明的產(chǎn)量表，大國(guó)今年7月份的“所要求的原油日產(chǎn)量”為1083萬(wàn)桶。

在撰寫(xiě)本文時(shí)，布倫特原油的價(jià)格為每桶109.11美元。這個(gè)大宗商品在今年迄今的最高收盤(pán)價(jià)為每桶127.98美元，出現(xiàn)在3月8日。 

李峻 編譯自美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

150 Oil Could Still Happen. Here's How.

$150 oil could still happen, BofA Global Research indicated in a new report sent to Rigzone this week.

In the report, BofA Global Research outlined that it sees Brent averaging $102 per barrel this year and in 2023 and highlighted that a potential spike to $150 per barrel could happen if European sanctions push oil production below nine million barrels per day.

“Yet the market does not seem to be pricing in a decade-long Russian supply crisis, as long dated oil prices have stayed firmly anchored in our long-term oil price band of $60 to $80 per barrel oil,” BofA Global Research noted in the report.

“Thus, extended sanctions on  energy could act as a price floor even if near-dated spot oil price downside risks grow. Even if the world goes into recession, we estimate Brent could average more than $75 per barrel in 2023,” BofA Global Research added.

In the report, BofA Global Research noted that it still assumes no recession, yet, although added that economic growth is constrained by limited energy output, fuel prices are rising, and central banks are hiking interest rates to slow down growth across the broader economy.

“Surging inflationary pressures from food to energy to services, coupled with fast paced interest rate hikes, suggest oil demand will struggle to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until next year,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.

“The geopolitics (the war) behind today’s massive refinery bottleneck are paving the way for a huge U.S. energy (SPR release, export limits), U.S. foreign (Saudi visit), and U.S. monetary (75bps hikes) policy response,” BofA Global Research added.

“How will oil demand destruction play out? Given the strength of the USD, large energy importers such as India, Turkey, South Africa, Japan, Germany or Spain are at the greatest risk of a demand contraction,” the company continued.

BofA Global Research said in the report that, if  oil supply does not drop below 10 million barrels per day, global oil demand could grow by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2023. According to a production table accompanying a statement about the latest OPEC+ meeting, which was posted on OPEC’s website on June 2, its “required production” for July 2022 is 10.83 million barrels per day.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil stood at $109.11 per barrel. The commodity’s highest close in 2022 so far has been $127.98, which was seen on March 8.