據(jù)美國油價網(wǎng)2022年4月22日報道，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）4月22日發(fā)布的最新預(yù)測顯示，今年全球石油日需求量將減少140萬桶。  

140萬桶/天的損失將使全球石油日需求平均降至9960萬桶，低于2019年1.002億桶的水平。 Rystead表示，預(yù)計這一需求的反彈最快也要到明年才會出現(xiàn)。 

石油需求下降的原因可能是軍事沖突、通貨膨脹、新冠肺炎疫情引發(fā)的封鎖、供應(yīng)鏈中斷等。 未來的封鎖或地緣政治問題可能會帶來更大的石油需求壓力。

這家挪威能源咨詢公司表示：“需求萎縮是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)活動放緩的直接影響。”該公司補(bǔ)充稱，這種需求下降可能緩解目前緊張的石油市場，穩(wěn)定油價。  

Rystad并不是唯一一家下調(diào)全球石油需求預(yù)測的公司。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期下降，歐佩克將今年全球石油日需求增長預(yù)測下調(diào)48萬桶。 

國際能源署（IEA）還將其對全球石油日需求預(yù)測下調(diào)26萬桶，以反應(yīng)重新出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的疫情封鎖。

與此同時，世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織雙雙下調(diào)了今年全球整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期。

但Rystad并沒有改變其看漲油價的前景。 Rystad表示，如果軍事沖突持續(xù)下去，將會提高石油和天然氣的價格，特別是如果歐盟最終在今年禁止進(jìn)口大國的石油和天然氣。 

“軍事沖突對石油需求的最壞影響，是基于布蘭特期貨原油價格在第四季度升至每桶180美元，引發(fā)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)一步放緩，并徹底摧毀石油需求。”Rystad如是表示。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Rystad: Oil Demand To Sink By 1.4 Million Bpd

Global oil demand will drop by 1.4 million barrels per day, according to the latest forecast by Rystad Energy on Friday cited by the National.

The 1.4 million bpd loss would sink oil demand to 99.6 million bpd on average, below 2019 levels of 100.2 million bpd. And a rebound in this demand isn’t expected to happy until next year at the soonest, Rystead said.

The drop in oil demand will likely come from the war, soaring inflation, covid-inspired lockdowns, and supply chain disruptions. And even more oil demand pressure could be applied through future lockdowns or geopolitical issues.

“Shrinking demand is a direct result of the impact of lower economic activity globally,” the consultancy said, adding that such a demand decrease could ease today’s tight oil markets, calming oil prices.

Rystad isn’t the only one lowering oil demand forecasts. OPEC cut its 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 480,000 bpd on the back of lower expected global economic growth given the war and the covid lockdowns.

The IEA also cut its oil demand forecast by 260,000 bpd to reflect the return of severe covid lockdowns.

Meanwhile, the World Bank and the IMF have both cut their overall global growth expectations for this year.

But Rystad isn’t changing its outlook for bullish oil prices. According to Rystad, if the war drags on, it will increase oil and gas prices, particularly if the EU ends up banning oil and gas this year.

“The war worst case for oil demand is premised on Brent prices reaching $180 per barrel in the fourth quarter, triggering a further economic slowdown and outright destruction of oil demand,” Rystad said.