據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)4月18日?qǐng)?bào)道，根據(jù)能源信息周一發(fā)布的最新鉆井生產(chǎn)力報(bào)告，已鉆井但未完成的油井?dāng)?shù)量降至有記錄以來(lái)的最低水平。

根據(jù)最新數(shù)據(jù)，2022年3月，已鉆探但未完成的井（也稱(chēng)為DUC）的數(shù)量下降至4273口。這比2021年初以來(lái)的42%有所下降。

DUC計(jì)數(shù)下降的原因是水力壓裂比鉆井更多——通常情況下，減少DUC庫(kù)存比鉆新井更具有成本效益。即便在當(dāng)前油價(jià)走高的環(huán)境下，股東仍繼續(xù)要求實(shí)行嚴(yán)格的財(cái)政限制，因此，DUC自然會(huì)受到青睞。

由于仍有4000多個(gè)DUC處于活動(dòng)狀態(tài)，即使自去年年初以來(lái)?yè)p失了近50%的DUC庫(kù)存，似乎也無(wú)需擔(dān)心。但這個(gè)DUC計(jì)數(shù)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直存在爭(zhēng)議。不是因?yàn)閿?shù)字本身的準(zhǔn)確性，而是因?yàn)樵谖赐瓿呻A段停留超過(guò)兩年的井被認(rèn)為是死井。

大多數(shù)分析人士認(rèn)為，95%的鉆井都是在頭兩年完成的。這意味著，在此之后，任何未完井的井都不太可能再完井。

早在去年6月，Rystad能源公司就估計(jì)，活井?dāng)?shù)量只有2380個(gè)，而當(dāng)時(shí)EIA估計(jì)總DUC數(shù)量超過(guò)6100個(gè)。根據(jù)EIA的數(shù)據(jù)，自那以后，DUC的總數(shù)下降了1827個(gè)，降幅達(dá)30%。假設(shè)大部分已經(jīng)完工都是活井，那么美國(guó)頁(yè)巖可供水力壓裂的資源就很少了。

EIA計(jì)算DUC井的方法早在水力壓裂測(cè)井減少之前就受到質(zhì)疑。

黎泱 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

EIA: Number Of DUCs Falls To Lowest On Record

The number of Drilled but Uncompleted Wells sank to its lowest level ever recorded, according to the Energy Information’s latest Drilling Productivity Report published on Monday.

The number of Drilled but Uncompleted Wells—also known as DUCs—fell to 4,273 in March 2022, according to the latest figures. This is down from 42% since the beginning of 2021.

The falling DUC count is due to more fracking than drilling—depleting their DUC inventories rather than drilling new wells is typically more cost effective. As shareholders continue to demand great fiscal restraint even in today’s higher oil-price environment, DUCs would naturally be favored.

With more than 4,000 DUCs still active, it may seem like there is little cause for concern, even with losing nearly 50% of the DUC inventory since the beginning of last year. But that DUC count has long been debated. Not due to the accuracy of the figure itself, but because wells that remain in the uncompleted phase for more than two years are considered dead DUCs.

Most analysts agree that 95% of all wells drilled are completed during the first two years. That means any wells still left uncompleted after that time are extremely unlikely to be completed—ever.

Back in June of last year, Rystad Energy estimated that the total number of live DUCs was just 2,380—that was when the EIA had estimated the overall DUC count was more than 6,100. Since then, the total DUC count, per the EIA, has dropped by 1,827, or 30%. Assuming that the majority of those that were completed were live, that leaves U.S. shale with precious little to frack.

The method with which the EIA calculates DUC wells has been called into question well before the dwindling fracklog.