據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年3月8日報道，盡管2014年至2020年全球資本支出呈螺旋式下降趨勢，但非洲油氣工業(yè)的支出將在2022年及2022年以后呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢。  

根據(jù)非洲能源商會2022年第一季度的報告，非洲油氣工業(yè)的資本支出在從2014年的600億美元下降到2020年的225億美元以后，今年將達(dá)到300億美元。 這為成熟和新興的油氣生產(chǎn)商提供了一個建立有利于投資者的機(jī)制來吸引資本的機(jī)會。  

按照目前預(yù)期的項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)水平，到2025年，非洲上游支出預(yù)計將有所增加。 延期的項(xiàng)目和原定于2022年以后進(jìn)行投資的項(xiàng)目將有可能對增長潛力做出顯著貢獻(xiàn)。  

如果這些項(xiàng)目得以實(shí)現(xiàn)，到2024年前，潛在的支出可能會增加到近490億美元。 與陸上項(xiàng)目相關(guān)的投資是最大的投資類別，在2022年至2025年期間，投資預(yù)計將超過680億美元。  

烏干達(dá)和肯尼亞也將對洛基查爾盆地的陸上新開發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行大規(guī)模投資。 如果不是最后一個開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的話，這個新開發(fā)項(xiàng)目可能是世界上最大的常規(guī)陸上項(xiàng)目之一。  

海底回接作業(yè)將在2022年至2025年的累計支出中占據(jù)第二位，而且可能會越來越普遍，因?yàn)樵诂F(xiàn)有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上搭載較小的油氣儲量具有商業(yè)意義。 這一類別還包括液化天然氣（LNG）開發(fā)的海上相關(guān)部分，考慮到莫桑比克預(yù)計的大型項(xiàng)目，這進(jìn)一步提高了這一類別。  

過去兩年表明，非洲油氣工業(yè)是受疫情影響最嚴(yán)重的年份之一。 運(yùn)營商的最初反應(yīng)包括推遲高盈虧平衡價格的項(xiàng)目，減少資本和運(yùn)營支出，以及在較低油價曲線下的現(xiàn)金流中性預(yù)測。 然而，由于非洲地區(qū)的一些項(xiàng)目受到了制裁，現(xiàn)在的預(yù)測顯示，2022年-2025年的支出將相對增加。 值得注意的是，2020年第四季度與2021年第四季度相比，資本支出同期收縮了約335億美元。 

與此同時，非洲幾個即將到來的重大項(xiàng)目將在短期內(nèi)推動大部分新支出。 被批準(zhǔn)和開發(fā)的大部分天然氣項(xiàng)目，如莫桑比克的Area 1 LNG項(xiàng)目、塞內(nèi)加爾和毛里塔尼亞海上的Greater Tortue Ahemyim FLNG項(xiàng)目。

其他項(xiàng)目包括法國道達(dá)爾能源公司在烏干達(dá)的Tilenga項(xiàng)目、安哥拉的Cameia-Golfinho項(xiàng)目、阿爾及利亞國家石油公司在安哥拉的Isarene項(xiàng)目以及埃尼公司在安哥拉的Quiluma/Maboqueiro項(xiàng)目。  

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

African Oil And Gas Industry To See Impressive Growth In 2022

Despite global capital expenditure being on a downward spiral between 2014 and 2020, spending trends within Africa’s oil and gas industry will increase in 2022 and beyond.

According to the African Energy Chamber’s report for the first quarter of 2022, capital expenditure within Africa’s oil and gas sector will reach $30 billion in 2022 after a decline from $60 billion in 2014 to $22.5 billion in 2020. This provides an opportunity for both mature and emerging hydrocarbon producers to establish investor-friendly regimes to attract capital.

At the current expected project sanctioning levels, upstream spending towards 2025 is expected to see an increase. Deferred projects and the projects originally slated for investments from 2022 onwards will together have the potential to contribute to significant growth potential.

Should the projects materialize, the potential expenditure may increase to almost $49 billion by 2024. Investments related to onshore projects represent the single greatest category with investments reaching over $68 billion during the 2022 – 2025 period.

Big investments are also expected in Uganda and Kenya related to the greenfield onshore development of Lokichar basin. This greenfield development may be one of, if not the last, big conventional onshore project in the world.

Subsea tiebacks will take the second spot in 2022 – 2025 cumulative spending and are likely to be more and more common as it makes commercial sense to piggyback smaller hydrocarbon accumulations on existing infrastructure. This category also includes the offshore-related part of LNG developments which further boosts this category considering the mega-projects expected in Mozambique.

Years 2020 and 2021 showed that the African oil and gas industry was one of the hardest hit by the Covid-19 outbreak. The initial reaction from the operators included delays to the projects with high breakeven prices, reduction of capital and operating expenditure, and cashflow neutral forecast at lower oil price curves. However, as the region saw a few project sanctions, the 2022 – 2025 forecast now shows relatively increased spending. To be noted, Q4 2020 versus Q4 2021 capital expenditure comparison showed a contraction of about $33.5 billion during the same period.

Meanwhile, several upcoming major projects in Africa are driving the majority of the greenfield expenditure in the short term. Most of the volumes are to be sanctioned and developed are natural gas with projects like the Area 1 LNG project in Mozambique and the Greater Tortue Ahemyim FLNG project offshore Senegal and Mauritania leading the list.

Other projects include TotalEnergies’ Tilenga project in Uganda and Cameia-Golfinho in Angola, Sonatrach’s Isarene project in Angola, and Eni’s Quiluma/Maboqueiro in Angola.