據(jù)今日油價(jià)1月5日?qǐng)?bào)道，石油市場(chǎng)看起來(lái)越來(lái)越樂(lè)觀，因?yàn)榉治鰩熣J(rèn)為新變異毒株對(duì)全球石油需求的影響將是有限的。

據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，波斯灣能源公司在2021年間借了305億美元，這是至少25年來(lái)的最高水平，因?yàn)檫@些地區(qū)的國(guó)家石油公司尋求外國(guó)投資來(lái)資助他們雄心勃勃的計(jì)劃。

卡塔爾能源公司是所有國(guó)家石油公司中的領(lǐng)頭羊，在2021年7月出售了125億美元債券(去年最大新興市場(chǎng)債券)，作為其液化天然氣產(chǎn)能擴(kuò)張融資的一部分。

沙特阿拉伯國(guó)家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)在前幾年借款名單上占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，在2021年排名第三，僅次于QE和ADNOC，“僅”籌集了65億美元，是2020年的三分之一。

全球能源轉(zhuǎn)型正在軟化中東產(chǎn)油國(guó)傳統(tǒng)上自給自足的地位，他們更多地選擇出售和分享，同時(shí)尋求從其巨大的油氣儲(chǔ)量中獲得最大收益。

市場(chǎng)推動(dòng)者

美國(guó)石油巨頭埃克森美孚表示，受天然氣價(jià)格上漲帶來(lái)10億美元意外收入的提振，預(yù)計(jì)2021年第四季度利潤(rùn)將比上一季度增長(zhǎng)19億美元。

美國(guó)LNG開(kāi)發(fā)商N(yùn)extDecade Corp表示，由于相對(duì)較低的天然氣價(jià)格阻礙了長(zhǎng)期供應(yīng)合同簽訂，其157億美元Rio Grande LNG項(xiàng)目最終投資決定將再次推遲，這已經(jīng)是第二次了。

歐洲人權(quán)法庭介入評(píng)估挪威石油巨頭Equinor公司在北極海域的開(kāi)采是否侵權(quán)，該公司生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃可能面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

1月4日，石油市場(chǎng)情緒出現(xiàn)了明顯轉(zhuǎn)變，越來(lái)越多的人預(yù)測(cè)，由于沒(méi)有大范圍封鎖，歐米克隆變異毒株對(duì)需求的破壞不會(huì)像之前的變異毒株那么糟糕。果然，關(guān)鍵地區(qū)病例一直在攀升，但各國(guó)政府不愿再次重復(fù)2020/2021年的政策。12月石油需求保持穩(wěn)定，基本接近11月水平，同時(shí)全球制造業(yè)活動(dòng)在供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸緩解背景下增強(qiáng)。因此，對(duì)更多歐佩克+原油的看漲預(yù)期絕不是矛盾的，尤其是考慮到其他地方供應(yīng)中斷。因此，洲際交易所布倫特原油本周的交易價(jià)格突破了每桶80美元關(guān)口，而美國(guó)基準(zhǔn)WTI原油則徘徊在每桶77.5美元左右。

歐佩克+同意在二月份再次增加產(chǎn)量。由歐佩克和俄羅斯等非成員國(guó)組成石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)集團(tuán)同意將每月40萬(wàn)桶供應(yīng)增量延長(zhǎng)至2022年2月，理由是市場(chǎng)對(duì)歐米克隆過(guò)度擔(dān)憂不會(huì)對(duì)未來(lái)全球需求產(chǎn)生重大影響。

歐佩克新秘書長(zhǎng)誓言保持“歐佩克+協(xié)議”。科威特石油行業(yè)資深人士Haitham al-Ghais是歐佩克新當(dāng)選的秘書長(zhǎng)，將于2022年8月1日接替尼日利亞穆罕默德·巴爾金多（Mohammad Barkindo），他發(fā)誓要讓延長(zhǎng)后的歐佩克+在2022年底逐步退出后繼續(xù)存在。

麥克德莫特贏得卡塔爾液化天然氣擴(kuò)張協(xié)議。美國(guó)工程公司McDermott (OTCMKTS:MCDIF)獲得了卡塔爾液化設(shè)施主要建設(shè)合同(13個(gè)井口平臺(tái)上部和周圍基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施)，該公司產(chǎn)能將增至每年1.26億噸。

ADNOC將很快完成洞穴儲(chǔ)油。阿聯(lián)酋國(guó)家石油公司ADNOC將很快在該國(guó)最大港口Fujairah進(jìn)行原油儲(chǔ)存能力大規(guī)模擴(kuò)張，該港口設(shè)于地下洞穴，儲(chǔ)存空間總計(jì)達(dá)4200萬(wàn)桶。

溫暖天氣幫助歐洲受壓的天然氣市場(chǎng)。氣溫遠(yuǎn)高于歷史平均水平，緩解了歐洲天然氣庫(kù)存緊張的壓力，并使日前TTF現(xiàn)貨天然氣價(jià)格跌破70歐元/ 百萬(wàn)英熱(24美元/百萬(wàn)英熱)，但今天由于俄羅斯供應(yīng)仍然緊張的消息而反彈。

印尼煤炭出口禁令撼動(dòng)市場(chǎng)。由于擔(dān)心這個(gè)東南亞國(guó)家無(wú)法滿足本國(guó)電力需求，全球主要?jiǎng)恿γ撼隹趪?guó)印度尼西亞的政府公司禁止了所有煤炭出口，這在天然氣價(jià)格下跌的同時(shí)推高了煤炭?jī)r(jià)格。

英國(guó)石油公司和埃尼集團(tuán)成為埃及許可談判的焦點(diǎn)。英國(guó)能源公司bp和意大利石油巨頭ENI是埃及最近一輪上游許可中最活躍的公司之一，共分配了8個(gè)區(qū)塊，投資承諾為2.5億美元。

德國(guó)離全面淘汰核能只有一步之遙。通過(guò)在新年前夕關(guān)閉布羅克多夫、格羅恩德和岡德雷明根核反應(yīng)堆，德國(guó)目前只有三座核電站在運(yùn)行，并將在2022年底前全面淘汰核電站，正如歐盟承認(rèn)核能是一種可持續(xù)能源一樣。

王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Sentiment Shifts In Oil Markets As Demand Fears Fade

Oil markets are looking increasingly bullish as analysts argue that the impact of Omicron on global oil demand will be limited

Energy companies from the Persian Gulf have borrowed 30.5 billion in 2021, according to Bloomberg, the highest level in at least 25 years as regional NOCs seek foreign investment to fund their ambitious plans.  

- Qatar Energy was the leader amongst all NOCs, selling $12.5 billion of bonds in July 2021 (the biggest emerging-market offering of last year) as part of financing its LNG capacity expansion. 

- Dominating the previous years’ borrowing lists, Saudi Aramco ranked only third in 2021 behind QE and ADNOC, having ‘only’ raised $6.5 billion, a third of what it did in 2020. 

- The global energy transition is softening the traditionally self-reliant stance of Middle Eastern producers as they sell and share more, whilst seeking to maximize gains from their vast hydrocarbon reserves.

Market Movers

- US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) stated it expects Q4 2021 profit to be as much as $1.9 billion higher quarter-on-quarter, buoyed by a $1 billion quarterly windfall from a rally in natural gas prices. 

- US LNG developer NextDecade Corp (NASDAQ:NEXT) stated that a final investment decision on its planned $15.7 billion Rio Grande LNG project would be delayed again, for the second time already, as relatively low gas prices hinder the conclusion of long-term supply contracts. 

- Norway’s oil major Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) might see its production plans jeopardizedafter the European Court of Human Rights stepped in to assess whether drilling in the Arctic seas might constitute a breach of fundamental freedoms. 

Tuesday, January 04, 2022

There has been a noticeable shift in sentiment in the oil market, with an increasing number of forecasts stating that demand destruction coming from the Omicron variant would not be as bad as previous variants due to the absence of widespread lockdowns. Sure enough, cases have been climbing in key areas, but governments are reluctant to repeat 2020/2021 policies again. Oil demand remained solid in December, essentially trending on par with November levels, whilst global manufacturing activity strengthened globally amidst easing supply chain bottlenecks. Thus, the bullish case for more OPEC+ crude is by no means paradoxical, especially when one considers all the supply-side disruptions in Libya and elsewhere. As a result, ICE Brent traded moved above the $80 per barrel threshold this week, whilst US benchmark WTI was hovering around $77.5 per barrel.

OPEC+ Agrees to Another Output Increase in February. The group of oil producers comprising OPEC and non-member participants including Russia agreed to extend the 400,000 b/d monthly supply increments into February 2022, arguing that overblown Omicron fears will not have a significant impact on global demand going forward. 

New OPEC Secretary-General Vows to Keep OPEC+ Pact Alive. Kuwaiti oil sector veteran Haitham al-Ghais, OPEC’s newly-elected secretary-general that will replace Nigeria’s Mohammad Barkindo starting August 01, 2022, vowed to keep the extended OPEC+ alive beyond its assumed phase-out in late 2022. 

EU Accused of Trying to Bury New Year’s Taxonomy Draft. Environmental groups unleashed an avalanche of criticism on the ‘sustainable finance taxonomy’ of the European Commission stipulating that both gas and nuclear are compatible with green objectives, arguing Brussels tried to bury it by issuing it on New Year’s Eve. 

McDermott Wins Qatar LNG Expansion Deal. US engineering firm McDermott (OTCMKTS:MCDIF) was awarded a major construction contract (13 wellhead platform topsides and infrastructure around them) for Qatar’s liquefaction facilities that would see its production capacity rise to 126 million tons per year.

ADNOC to Finish Cavern Oil Storage Soon. The Emirati national oil company ADNOC will soon commission a major expansion of its crude oil storage capacity at the country’s largest port of Fujairah, set in underground caverns whose storage space total 42 million barrels of oil.

Warm Weather Helps Europe’s Pressured Gas Market. Temperatures well above the historical average have eased the pressure on Europe’s tight gas inventories and brought day-ahead TTF spot gas prices below €70 per MWh ($24 per mmBtu), only to bounce back today on the news of still-tight Russian supplies. 

Indonesia Coal Export Ban Shakes Market. The government of Indonesia, the world’s leading thermal coal exporter, banned all coal exports out of concerns that the Southeast Asian country could not meet its own power demand, sending coal prices higher amidst falling natural gas quotes.

BP and ENI Take Centre Stage in Egypt Licensing Round. UK energy firm BP (NYSE:BP) and Italian oil major ENI (NYSE:E) have been amongst the most active in Egypt’s most recent upstream licensing round, with a total of 8 blocks allocated against a $250 million investment commitment. 

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