據世界石油7月23日報道，由于夏季高溫加劇了對今年晚些時候供應緊張的擔憂，美國天然氣期貨價格自2018年12月以來首次飆升至每百萬英熱單位4美元。
8月交割的天然氣價格為4.003美元，創下31個月以來的最高收盤價。2022年3月天然氣相對于4月期貨的溢價——主要是押注明年冬季結束時市場供應不足的程度——達到62.9美分，徘徊在歷史高位附近。
由于炎熱的天氣刺激了空調用電的需求，燃料的價格在全球范圍內飆升。然而，在美國，對冬季可能出現的供應短缺的擔憂也支撐了油價的上漲。冬季，隨著家庭和企業增加供暖，天然氣消耗達到峰值。石油儲備已低于今年同期的正常水平，而石油產量增長也受到抑制，因為鉆井公司聽從了投資者對資本紀律的呼吁。
“通常情況下，這種上漲是合理的。這在很大程度上取決于天氣，而且不會消失，”瑞穗證券期貨部門主管鮑勃·雅格(Bob Yawger)在接受采訪時說，“我們已經很久沒有見過這種熱度了。”
下周，酷熱的夏季可能會將德克薩斯州的電力需求推至接近歷史最高水平，但該州的電網運營商表示，他們有足夠的電力來避免停電。美國國家氣象局(National Weather Service)表示，達拉斯的氣溫預計最快將在周一飆升至101華氏度(38攝氏度)，今年首次突破100華氏度大關。
出口也加劇了天然氣供應緊張。今年5月，美國液化天然氣出口量首次超過澳大利亞，因為世界各地的買家繼續購買創紀錄數量的超冷燃料。下個月，美國通過管道向墨西哥輸送的天然氣也將達到歷史最高水平。
政府數據顯示，美國地下天然氣儲量比往年同期低6.2%。
對沖基金Again Capital LLC的創始合伙人約翰?基爾達夫(John Kilduff)表示，市場正以“多年來庫存最低的天然氣儲量”進入冬季。
黎泱 編譯自 世界石油
原文如下：
Natural gas price nears three-year high as summer heat strains supply
Natural gas futures soared to $4 per million British thermal units in the U.S. for the first time since December 2018 as summer heat intensified concerns about tight supplies later this year.
Gas for August delivery settled at $4.003, the highest closing price in 31 months. The premium for March 2022 gas over April futures -- essentially a bet on how undersupplied the market will be at the end of next winter -- reached 62.9 cents, hovering near a record high.
Prices for the fuel are soaring across the globe as scorching weather stokes demand for electricity to run air conditioners. In the U.S., however, the rally is also underpinned by concern about a potential supply shortfall in the winter, when gas consumption peaks as homes and businesses crank up the heat. Stockpiles are already below normal for the time of year, and production growth has been restrained as drillers heed investor calls for capital discipline.
“You generally have a heat situation that justifies this kind of rally. It’s largely a function of the weather, and it’s not going to go away,” Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities, said in an interview. “We haven’t seen this kind of heat in a long time.”
Intense summer heat could push power demand in Texas to near-record levels next week, but the state’s grid operator says it has more than enough electricity to keep blackouts at bay.
Temperatures are expected to soar to 101 Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) in Dallas as soon as Monday, the National Weather Service said, breaking the 100-degree mark for the first time this year.
Exports are also contributing to tight gas supplies. In May, the U.S. shipments of liquefied natural gas exceeded Australia’s for the first time ever as buyers around the world continued to purchase record amounts of the super-chilled fuel. The next month, gas deliveries to Mexico from the U.S. via pipeline also reached an all-time high.
U.S. gas in underground storage is 6.2% below normal for the time of year, government data show.
The market is on pace to go into the winter with “the least amount of gas in storage we’ve had on hand in years,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at hedge fund Again Capital LLC.
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