據(jù)世界能源7月1日消息：隨著下半年需求增加220萬桶/天，2021年底石油市場將出現(xiàn)500萬桶/天的赤字。

　　高盛銀行表示，這意味著歐佩克+需要增加供應，以幫助縮小赤字，因為其他供應商將發(fā)現(xiàn)，介入并提高產(chǎn)量更具挑戰(zhàn)性。

　　“雖然新一輪大規(guī)模的感染浪潮可能會減緩市場再平衡，但我們預計歐佩克+在增產(chǎn)方面仍將保持戰(zhàn)術(shù)性，其他地區(qū)的全球供應面臨下行風險，表明原油和上游行業(yè)的前景比石油產(chǎn)品和下游行業(yè)更為強勁。”該說明的作者稱。

　　歐佩克+將在明天的月度例會上討論增加多少產(chǎn)量，以及是否增加產(chǎn)量。據(jù)報道，俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯再次出現(xiàn)意見分歧。不過，觀察人士似乎有信心，這兩位控制原油生產(chǎn)進程的領(lǐng)導者最終會達成一致，就像他們迄今所做的那樣。

　　高盛今年早些時候以供應緊張和需求強勁反彈為由，預測油價將在今年年底前觸及每桶80美元。盡管歐佩克+放松了生產(chǎn)限制，但該行仍堅持這一預測。

　　這家投行今年4月表示:“決不能低估需求量即將發(fā)生的變化，這種變化是供應無法比擬的。”

　　與此同時，有報道稱，俄羅斯石油公司很難扭轉(zhuǎn)歐佩克+協(xié)議下實施的減產(chǎn)，如果該說法屬實，沙特阿拉伯可能會有更多空間提高產(chǎn)量以緩解赤字。

　　高盛預計歐佩克+從下個月起將日產(chǎn)量再增加50萬桶。

　　馮娟 摘譯自 世界能源

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman Sachs: Oil Markets To See Deficit Of 5 Million Bpd By End 2021

　　The oil market will end 2021 in a deficit of 5 million bpd as demand grows by another 2.2 million bpd in the second half of the year.

　　This means that OPEC+ needs to bring more supply online to help narrow this deficit because other suppliers would find it more challenging to step in and boost production, the bank also said.

　　"While a large new infection wave could slow the market rebalancing, we expect OPEC+ to remain tactical in its output hikes with downside risks to global supply elsewhere pointing to a more robust outlook for crude and the upstream sector than petroleum products and the downstream sector," the authors of the note said.

　　OPEC+ will discuss how much more production to add—and whether to add any at all—tomorrow at its regular monthly meeting. According to reports, Russia and Saudi Arabia again have differences of opinion. Still, observers appear confident that the two leaders of the production control push will eventually agree, as they have so far.

　　Goldman earlier this year predicted oil prices would hit $80 per barrel before this year's end, citing tight supply and the strong rebound in demand. The bank stuck to this forecast even as OPEC+ loosened its production restrictions.

　　"The magnitude of the coming change in the volume of demand -- a change which supply cannot match -- must not be understated," the investment bank said in April.

　　Meanwhile, reports say that Russian oil companies are having trouble reversing the production cuts implemented under the OPEC+ agreement, which, if true, may leave more space for Saudi Arabia to boost its production to ease the deficit.

　　Goldman expects OPEC+ to add another 500,000 bpd to its total output from next month.

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