據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)6月9日?qǐng)?bào)道，日前國(guó)際能源署(IEA)發(fā)布了2021年5月石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告。

　　在歐佩克大力限制供應(yīng)近一年之后，去年新冠疫情需求沖擊期間積累的龐大全球石油庫(kù)存已恢復(fù)到更正常的水平。3月份， OECD工業(yè)石油庫(kù)存減少了2500萬(wàn)桶，至29.51億桶，與5年平均水平相比，剩余庫(kù)存減少至170萬(wàn)桶，（比 2015-2019年多369萬(wàn)桶）。四月庫(kù)存繼續(xù)下降。

　　由于美國(guó)和歐洲放寬出行限制、強(qiáng)勁的工業(yè)活動(dòng)和冠狀病毒疫苗接種為燃料需求的穩(wěn)步反彈奠定了基礎(chǔ)，而歐佩克的產(chǎn)量遠(yuǎn)低于其原油需求，所以庫(kù)存減少是不可避免的。作為回應(yīng)，油價(jià)在4月至5月恢復(fù)了上漲勢(shì)頭。截至發(fā)稿時(shí)，洲際交易所布倫特原油期貨交易價(jià)格接近69美元/桶，而WTI則徘徊在65美元/桶左右。

　　盡管 5 月份市場(chǎng)看起來(lái)供過(guò)于求，但即使全球石油供應(yīng)量增加，庫(kù)存量減少也將從 6 月份恢復(fù)。歐佩克的部長(zhǎng)們已經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)了他們4月初的決定，從5月-7月增加200萬(wàn)桶/天的供應(yīng)，其中包括逐漸恢復(fù)沙特自2月以來(lái)自愿減產(chǎn)100萬(wàn)桶/天的產(chǎn)量。在大規(guī)模維修結(jié)束后，加拿大、北海和巴西產(chǎn)量將進(jìn)一步增加。到年底，世界石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將比4月份增加380萬(wàn)桶/日。

　　根據(jù)目前歐佩克的生產(chǎn)情景，供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)速度將趕不上預(yù)期的需求復(fù)蘇。隨著疫苗接種率的上升和流動(dòng)性限制的放寬，全球石油需求將從21年第一季度的9310萬(wàn)桶/天飆升至年底的9960萬(wàn)桶/天。美國(guó)和歐洲21年第一季度石油消費(fèi)量低于預(yù)期，印度因近期新冠疫情病例激增而前景黯淡，這些因素導(dǎo)致我們將2021年的需求增長(zhǎng)下調(diào)至540萬(wàn)桶/天。然而，基于印度和其他地區(qū)局勢(shì)好轉(zhuǎn)的假設(shè)，下半年的預(yù)測(cè)基本沒(méi)有變化。

　　印度的新冠疫情危機(jī)提醒人們，石油需求前景充滿不確定性。在疫情得到控制之前，市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)可能會(huì)持續(xù)。

　　郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SET TO SOAR FROM 93.1 TO 99.6 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2021

　　The IEA (International Energy Agency) released its Oil Market Report for May 2021.

　　After nearly a year of robust supply restraint from OPEC, bloated world oil inventories that built up during last year’s Covid-19 demand shock have returned to more normal levels. During March, OECD industry oil stocks drew by 25 mb to 2 951 mb, reducing the overhang versus the five-year average to only 1.7 mb (and 36.9 mb above 2015-19). Stocks continued to fall in April.

　　Draws had been almost inevitable as easing mobility restrictions in the United States and Europe, robust industrial activity and coronavirus vaccinations set the stage for a steady rebound in fuel demand while OPEC pumped far below the call on its crude. In response, oil prices resumed their upward trajectory during April and into May. At the time of writing, ICE Brent futures traded near $69/bbl while WTI hovered around $65/bbl.

　　While the market looks oversupplied in May, stock draws are set to resume from June, even with global oil supply on the rise. OPEC ministers have endorsed their early April decision to boost supply by more than 2 mb/d from May to July, including a gradual return of 1 mb/d of Saudi production shut in on a voluntary basis since February. Further gains will come from Canada, the North Sea and Brazil after hefty maintenance is concluded. By year-end, world oil production is forecast to rise by 3.8 mb/d from April.

　　Under the current OPEC production scenario, supplies won’t rise fast enough to keep pace with the expected demand recovery. As vaccination rates rise and mobility restrictions ease, global oil demand is set to soar from 93.1 mb/d in 1Q21 to 99.6 mb/d by year-end. Weaker-than-expected 1Q21 oil use in the United States and Europe and a reduced outlook for India due to the recent surge in Covid-19 led us to revise down 2021 demand growth to 5.4 mb/d. The forecast for the second half of the year is largely unchanged, however, on the assumption that the situation in India and elsewhere improves.

　　India’s Covid crisis is a reminder that the outlook for oil demand is mired in uncertainty. Until the pandemic is brought under control, market volatility is likely to persist.

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