據OE網站6月2日報道，上周五總部位于奧斯陸的咨詢公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）表示，即使全球需求在本世紀中葉大幅下降，仍將需要數以千計的新油井和數百個新油田來滿足全球需求。

　　該公司的分析與國際能源署(IEA)的結論形成了鮮明的對比。IEA在今年5月表示，如果世界想要在本世紀中葉實現凈零排放，投資者就不應該資助新的石油、天然氣和煤炭項目。

　　IEA預計，到2050年，石油日需求量將降至2,400萬桶，而雷斯塔預計將降至3,600萬桶。

　　該咨詢公司在一份報告中稱，鑒于油井年均產量下降20%以上，國際石油業仍需在現有油田鉆探數千口新油井，同時開發約900個新油田，總資源約為1500億桶石油。其補充道，這些項目中的大多數預計將是重新開發、擴建或連接現有平臺，這意味著由于現有基礎設施被重復利用，所需的投資將是適度的。

　　雷斯塔稱，要想在21世紀30年代實現約1,000萬桶/天的原油供應，需要采取措施，因為其預測的需求下降速度要慢于IEA，該咨詢機構稱，IEA高估了生物燃料增長和行為變化的影響。

　　其補充道，即使2050年石油需求保持在3600萬桶/天，也應該有可能實現將氣溫上升幅度較工業化前控制在1.5攝氏度以內的目標。

　　雷斯塔的分析可能會受到石油公司和產油國的歡迎，比如挪威，它們質疑IEA的分析，因為IEA的分析破壞了該行業在中期內繼續生產石油的理由。

　　歐佩克曾表示，新項目投資不足可能導致油價更不穩定。

　　郝芬 譯自 OE

　　原文如下：

　　Thousands of New Oil Wells Needed to Meet Demand, Rystad Says

　　Thousands of new oil wells and hundreds of new oilfields will be needed to meet global demand even if it falls sharply towards the middle of the century, Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said last Friday.

　　Its analysis stands in sharp contrast to the conclusions of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said [in May] that investors should not fund new oil, gas, and coal projects if the world wants to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

　　The IEA's scenario sees oil demand declining to 24 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, while Rystad sees oil demand falling to 36 million bpd by the same time.

　　"Given that output from oil wells declines by an average of more than 20% per year, the international oil industry will still need to drill thousands of new wells in existing fields, as well as developing around 900 new oilfields with collective resources of about 150 billion barrels of oil," the consultancy said in a note.

　　Most of these projects were expected to be redevelopment, extensions, or tie-backs to existing platforms,

　　meaning the required investments will be moderate as existing infrastructure is reused, it added.

　　Rystad said developments were needed to deliver about 10 million bpd in the 2030s, as it saw a slower fall in demand than the IEA, which the consultancy said was overestimating the impact of biofuel growth and behavioral changes.

　　Even if oil demand remains at 36 million bpd in 2050, it should be possible to reach the target of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, it added.

　　Rystad's analysis is likely to be welcomed by oil companies and oil-producing countries, such as Norway, which have questioned the IEA's analysis as it undermines the case for the industry to carry on producing oil in the medium term.

　　The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said a lack of investments in new projects could lead to more volatile prices.

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