據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2021年5月3日,莫斯科報道，彭博新聞社援引俄羅斯能源部公布的數(shù)據(jù)報道說，由于歐佩克+放松了減產(chǎn)措施，俄羅斯4月份的平均石油日產(chǎn)量為1046萬桶，比3月份增加了1.9%。

　　在4月份之前，俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量配額曾兩次提高，分別在2月份和3月份提高了6.5萬桶/天。4月份的石油日產(chǎn)量減少了13萬桶。據(jù)俄羅斯副總理亞歷山大·諾瓦克稱，從5月到7月，俄羅斯將進一步日增11.4萬桶的石油產(chǎn)量。

　　歐佩克+將在5月至7月期間將石油日產(chǎn)量增加200萬桶，表明其對需求改善的信心。

　　據(jù)塔斯社報道，俄羅斯能源部表示，減產(chǎn)是導(dǎo)致今年前4個月俄羅斯石油出口下降的因素之一。在過去4個月里，海外石油出貨量下降了17.2%，僅4月份就下降了16.4%。

　　俄羅斯的石油產(chǎn)量從去年的創(chuàng)紀錄高點下降，這是10年來的第一次，原因是俄羅斯加入了歐佩克+協(xié)議。現(xiàn)在，根據(jù)能源部的數(shù)據(jù)，俄羅斯石油產(chǎn)量可能永遠無法恢復(fù)到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平。該部門表示，俄羅斯石油產(chǎn)量將在當(dāng)前水平上有所改善，到2029年達到1110萬桶/天，但隨后開始下降，到2035年前降到940萬桶/天。

　　由于這些預(yù)測，俄羅斯需要在有能力的時候?qū)⑵涫拓敻回泿呕蛘撸缍砹_斯議會能源委員會主席今年早些時候所說的，“所有能生產(chǎn)的石油都應(yīng)該在仍然有需求的時候生產(chǎn)出來。”

　　這是俄羅斯能源部提出的基本情況或最有可能的情況。在最樂觀的情況下，俄羅斯石油產(chǎn)量將在2030年前達到1280萬桶/天的峰值，然后才開始下降。無論哪種情況，產(chǎn)出的穩(wěn)步下降迫在眉睫。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Russia Boosted Oil Production In April

　　Russia produced 10.46 million bpd last month, up by 1.9 percent on March as OPEC+ relaxed its production cuts, Bloomberg reports, citing data from Russia's Energy Ministry.

　　Russia's production quota had been upped twice before April, by 65,000 bpd in February and March. It was then relaxed by 130,000 bpd for April. From this month to July, Russia will further increase its output by 114,000 bpd, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

　　OPEC+ in total will increase its oil production by 2 million barrels daily between May and July, signaling its belief in improving demand.

　　The production cuts were among the factors that drove Russia's oil exports lower in the first four months of the year, the Energy Ministry said, as quoted by TASS. Shipments of oil abroad declined by 17.2 percent over the four-month period and by 16.4 percent in April alone.

　　Russia's oil production fell from record highs last year for the first time in a decade due to its participation in the OPEC+ pact. Now, according to the Energy Ministry, output may never recover to pre-pandemic levels. It will improve from current levels, the ministry said, reaching 11.1 million bpd by 2029 but then starting to decline, reaching 9.4 million bpd by 2035.

　　Because of these projections, Russia needs to monetize its oil wealth while it can, or, as the head of the energy committee at the Russian parliament put it earlier this year, "Everything that can be produced should be produced while there is still demand to sell it."

　　This is the base-case or most likely scenario developed by the Energy Ministry. In its best-case scenario, the ministry sees Russia's oil production hit a peak of 12.8 million bpd by 2030 and only then begin to decline. In either scenario, a steady decline in output is imminent.

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