???? 據(jù)ICIS網(wǎng)站3月11日消息 歐佩克周四表示，預(yù)計(jì)2021年原油需求反彈可能使消費(fèi)大幅低于2019年的水平，因?yàn)檫\(yùn)輸業(yè)的持續(xù)疲軟會(huì)影響經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的步伐。

????歐佩克表示，在全球健康工業(yè)活動(dòng)的支持下，石化產(chǎn)品的需求將保持健康。

????根據(jù)歐佩克的數(shù)據(jù)，全球石油需求今年可能增長(zhǎng)590萬(wàn)桶/日，此前一年的平均需求量增長(zhǎng)960萬(wàn)桶/日。2021年的平均需求量預(yù)計(jì)為9630萬(wàn)桶/天。

????歐佩克下調(diào)了對(duì)2021年前6個(gè)月的預(yù)期，原因是采取措施控制歐洲感染人數(shù)激增和美國(guó)失業(yè)率居高不下。

????對(duì)疫苗計(jì)劃推動(dòng)下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的更強(qiáng)烈預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致歐佩克上調(diào)了對(duì)第三季度及以后需求的預(yù)測(cè)，但由于全球大部分地區(qū)的大部分客運(yùn)機(jī)隊(duì)停飛，運(yùn)輸可能仍將成為拖累因素。

????歐佩克在月度石油報(bào)告中表示：“石油密集型行業(yè)，尤其是旅游和運(yùn)輸業(yè)，將繼續(xù)受到不成比例的影響，相對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，2020年石油需求將受到更大的負(fù)面影響，2021年石油需求的正貢獻(xiàn)將更低。”

????王磊 摘譯自 ICIS

????原文如下：

????2021 crude demand to undershoot 2019 on transport sector woes - OPEC

????A projected rebound in crude oil demand in 2021 is likely to leave consumption substantially below 2019 levels, as continuing transport sector weakness bites into the pace of the recovery, OPEC said on Thursday.

????Supported by healthy industrial activity across the world, demand for petrochemicals will remain healthy, said the producing cartel.

????Global oil demand is likely to grow by 5.9m bbl/day this year after collapsing by an average of 9.6m bbl/day the previous year, according to OPEC; average demand for 2021 is expected at 96.3m bbl/day.

????The oil cartel downgraded expectations for the first six months of 2021 on the back of measures to control surging infection numbers in Europe and high unemployment in the US.

????Stronger expectations of a vaccine programme-driven recovery in the second half of the year has led OPEC to up its projections for demand through the third quarter and beyond but, with the bulk of passenger air fleets grounded across much of the world, transport is likely to remain a drag.

????“Oil-intensive sectors, especially travel and transportation, will remain disproportionately affected, with a larger negative impact on 2020 oil demand and a lower positive contribution to 2021 oil demand, relative to global economic growth,” OPEC said in its monthly oil report.