???? 據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2月6日消息稱，貝克休斯的首席執(zhí)行官Lorenzo Simonelli在今年的公司年度會(huì)議上的主題演講中說：“油氣資源不會(huì)消失。”與該行業(yè)的其他高管一樣，Simonelli承認(rèn)并歡迎能源轉(zhuǎn)型，但他指出，實(shí)現(xiàn)100%的可再生能源是不可能的。盡管許多環(huán)保人士抱有希望和雄心，但有大量證據(jù)表明情況確實(shí)如此。

????這些希望和雄心設(shè)想了這樣一個(gè)世界:人類活動(dòng)僅由電力提供動(dòng)力，而這些電力反過來也僅使用太陽能、風(fēng)能和水電等可再生能源來發(fā)電。

????然而，這樣的世界是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的。

????以德國為例。該國是擁有最多可再生能源產(chǎn)能的歐盟成員國之一，但自今年年初以來，該國沒有通過太陽能生產(chǎn)過一瓦電。原因是:現(xiàn)在是冬天。它正在通過大量的風(fēng)能生產(chǎn)電，這是肯定的，但它也在用最受鄙視的化石燃料—煤炭發(fā)電。

????在撰寫本文時(shí)，其碳強(qiáng)度為每千瓦時(shí)264克二氧化碳當(dāng)量。這與歐洲另一個(gè)可再生能源的模范國家丹麥的碳強(qiáng)度相當(dāng)，丹麥目前的大部分能源來自風(fēng)力發(fā)電。

????因此，似乎建立可再生能源本身并不是解決排放問題的靈丹妙藥。事實(shí)上，如果你建得太快而沒有增加足夠的存儲(chǔ)容量，可能會(huì)適得其反。最近，克羅地亞變電站的一個(gè)小問題引發(fā)了歐洲的大面積停電，這一事件波及整個(gè)歐洲大陸，凸顯了保持電網(wǎng)頻率恒定的重要性——可再生能源由于間歇性發(fā)電而無法做到這一點(diǎn)。

????即使是丹麥也有火力發(fā)電廠，以確保任何電網(wǎng)正常運(yùn)行所需的基本負(fù)荷，并消除或至少減少停電的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????回到Simonelli關(guān)于石油和天然氣有保障的未來的預(yù)測(cè)。這個(gè)未來不會(huì)像過去一樣。世界正在堅(jiān)定地改變其產(chǎn)生和使用能源的方式。

????首先，能源效率將是這一轉(zhuǎn)變的重要組成部分。

????最近，效率已經(jīng)被人們淡出了視線，取而代之的是綠色氫燃料和持續(xù)減排的理念，但它并沒有消失。根據(jù)貝克休斯Simellielli的說法，僅靠效率就可以幫助實(shí)現(xiàn)巴黎協(xié)議中27%的氣候變化目標(biāo)。在全球范圍內(nèi)，這是一個(gè)巨大的減排量，每年減少5億噸。

????除了提高效率外，大型石油公司還在投資者、監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和維權(quán)人士的壓力下做出了各種承諾。每一個(gè)超級(jí)巨頭現(xiàn)在都有一個(gè)可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型計(jì)劃，有些比其他的更雄心勃勃。所有這些計(jì)劃都涉及將數(shù)十億美元投入這些公司的核心業(yè)務(wù)—從地下開采石油和天然氣，當(dāng)然，這是以碳和甲烷排放為代價(jià)的。

????曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

????原文如下：

????FOSSIL FUELS AREN’T GOING ANYWHERe

????“There is no scenario where hydrocarbons disappear,” the chief executive of Baker Hughes, Lorenzo Simonelli, said during his keynote speech at this year’s annual meeting in the company. Like other executives from the industry, Simonelli acknowledged and welcomed the energy transition, but he noted that a 100-percent renewable energy scenario was simply not possible. There is plenty of evidence this is indeed the case, despite the hopes and ambitions of many environmental advocates.

????These hopes and ambitions imagine a world where human activity is powered from electricity only, and this electricity in turn is being generated using only renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower.

????Such a world, however, is unrealistic.

????Take Germany, for example. The country, which is among the EU members with the most renewable energy capacity, has not produced a single Watt of solar energy since the start of this year. The reason: it’s winter. It is producing solid amounts of wind power, that’s for sure, but it is also generating power from the most despised fossil fuel of all: coal.

????At the time of writing its carbon intensity was 264 grams of CO2 equivalent per kWh. That was comparable to the carbon intensity of another poster girl for renewables in Europe, Denmark, which is currently getting most of its energy from wind power.

????So, it seems building renewable capacity in itself is not a silver bullet solution to the emissions problem. In fact, if you build it too quickly without adding substantial storage capacity, it could backfire. This was most recently evidenced by a narrow miss of a major blackout in Europe prompted by a minor problem at a Croatian substation that rippled through the continent, highlighting the importance of maintaining the grid at a constant frequency—something renewables cannot do because of their intermittent generation.

????Even Denmark has thermal power plants to secure the baseload any grid needs to function properly and eliminate or at least reduce the risk of blackouts.

????But back to Simonelli’s prediction about the guaranteed future of oil and gas. This future won’t be like the past. The world is firmly on course to change the way it generates and uses energy.

????Energy efficiency, for one, will be a big part of the transition.

????Efficiency has been pushed out of the spotlight recently, replaced by things like green hydrogen and the constant emission-reduction narrative, but it has not gone away. According to Baker Huges’ Simonelli, efficiency alone could help meet as much as 27 percent of the Paris Agreement climate change targets. On a global scale, this is a massive amount of emissions cut, at a rate of half a gigaton annually.

????In addition to efficiency, there are all the commitments Big Oil is making under pressure from investors, regulators, and activists. Every supermajor now has a renewable energy transition plan, some more ambitious than others. All the plans, however, involve pouring billions of dollars into what is essentially a move away from these companies’ core business of extracting oil and gas from the ground, at a carbon and methane emission cost, of course.