???? 據(jù)世界石油2月18日消息稱，縱觀歷史，美國進(jìn)口的石油(包括原油、精煉石油產(chǎn)品和其他液體)一直超過出口。這種狀況在2020年發(fā)生了變化。美國能源信息署（EIA）于2021年2月發(fā)布的《短期能源展望》（STEO）估計，2020年是美國石油出口首次超過進(jìn)口的一年。然而，主要由于國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量的下降和相應(yīng)的原油進(jìn)口的增加，EIA預(yù)計美國將在2021年和2022年重新成為石油凈進(jìn)口國。

????EIA預(yù)計，不斷增加的原油進(jìn)口將推動2021年和2022年石油凈進(jìn)口的增長，并足以抵消成品油凈貿(mào)易量的變化。EIA預(yù)測，原油凈進(jìn)口量將從2020年的平均水平270萬桶/天增加到2021年的370萬桶/天和2022年的440萬桶/天。

????與原油貿(mào)易相比，2020年精煉石油產(chǎn)品凈出口變化不大。按年平均計算，美國石油產(chǎn)品凈出口量——餾分燃料油、烴氣液和汽油等——在2019年平均為320萬桶/天，在2020年為340萬桶/天。EIA預(yù)測，隨著全球?qū)κ彤a(chǎn)品的需求從2020年上半年的低點(diǎn)繼續(xù)增長，2021年石油產(chǎn)品凈出口量平均將達(dá)到350萬桶/天，2022年將達(dá)到390萬桶/天。

????EIA預(yù)計，美國將在2021年至2022年進(jìn)口更多原油，以填補(bǔ)煉油廠原油投入和國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量之間日益擴(kuò)大的差距。2020年，美國原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計下降90萬桶/天(8%)，至1130萬桶/天，主要原因是由于低油價導(dǎo)致的油井減少和鉆井活動的減少。

????EIA預(yù)計，從2020年第四季度開始的原油價格上漲將有助于今年晚些時候美國原油產(chǎn)量的增加。EIA預(yù)測，到2021年底，美國原油月產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1130萬桶/天，到2022年底將達(dá)到1190萬桶/天。這些數(shù)值較2020年11月的最新月度平均值1110萬桶/天有所增加(根據(jù)EIA的月度石油供應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù))，但仍低于2019年11月的前峰值1290萬桶/天。

????曹海斌 摘譯自 世界石油

????原文如下：

????U.S. will import 62% more crude by 2022 due to domestic production declines, says EIA

????Throughout much of its history, the United States has imported more petroleum (which includes crude oil, refined petroleum products, and other liquids) than it has exported. That status changed in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) estimates that 2020 marked the first year that the United States exported more petroleum than it imported on an annual basis. However, largely because of declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports, EIA expects the United States to return to being a net petroleum importer on an annual basis in both 2021 and 2022.

????EIA expects that increasing crude oil imports will drive the growth in net petroleum imports in 2021 and 2022 and more than offset changes in refined product net trade. EIA forecasts that net imports of crude oil will increase from its 2020 average of 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 3.7 million b/d in 2021 and 4.4 million b/d in 2022.

????Compared with crude oil trade, net exports of refined petroleum products did not change as much during 2020. On an annual average basis, U.S. net petroleum product exports—distillate fuel oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, and motor gasoline, among others—averaged 3.2 million b/d in 2019 and 3.4 million b/d in 2020. EIA forecasts that net petroleum product exports will average 3.5 million b/d in 2021 and 3.9 million b/d in 2022 as global demand for petroleum products continues to increase from its recent low point in the first half of 2020.

????EIA expects that the United States will import more crude oil to fill the widening gap between refinery inputs of crude oil and domestic crude oil production in 2021 and 2022. U.S. crude oil production declined by an estimated 0.9 million b/d (8%) to 11.3 million b/d in 2020 because of well curtailment and a drop in drilling activity related to low crude oil prices.

????EIA expects the rising price of crude oil, which started in the fourth quarter of 2020, will contribute to more U.S. crude oil production later this year. EIA forecasts monthly domestic crude oil production will reach 11.3 million b/d by the end of 2021 and 11.9 million b/d by the end of 2022. These values are increases from the most recent monthly average of 11.1 million b/d in November 2020 (based on data in EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly) but still lower than the previous peak of 12.9 million b/d in November 2019.